Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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156 ACUS11 KWNS 160308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160308 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-160415- Mesoscale Discussion 1284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...western North Dakota into far northwestern South Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 422... Valid 160308Z - 160415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues within WW422, with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms continues to move eastward into western North Dakota, with potential for damaging winds 60-75 mph (some instances 75+ mph). This line of storms continues to move into a favorably unstable environment with strong deep layer shear and steep lapse rates. More favorable low-level wind profiles are observed across northwestern North Dakota, where 0-3 km shear values are around 40-45 kts with 0-1 km shear around 20 kts. This may lead to some increase of risk for embedded mesovortices and a tornado or two within the line. Further south across southwestern North Dakota near the South Dakota border, more discrete convection is ongoing with history of producing hail up to baseball size. Given the weaker low-level shear profiles in this region, the main threats are likely to continue to be large hail and damaging wind, though a tornado cannot be ruled out with more mature supercell modes. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW... LAT...LON 47560404 48930402 48950286 48740224 48120175 46840104 46380064 45790082 45640183 45610242 45680314 46380381 47560404