Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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834 ACUS11 KWNS 012148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012147 KSZ000-COZ000-012245- Mesoscale Discussion 1505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...far eastern Colorado into far western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012147Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe gust threat may materialize this afternoon. An instance of severe hail also cannot be completely ruled out. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway along the KS/CO border, where surface temperatures have warmed to over 100 F south of a warm front. Surface dewpoints are only in the upper 50s to low 60s F, indicative of a deep, mixed boundary layer in place, with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km. Vertical wind shear is not particularly strong (i.e. 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear), so multicell storms modes should be favored. Given the deep boundary layer and potential for evaporative cooling, at least a few severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms, and an instance of marginally severe hail cannot be completely ruled out. Overall coverage of severe is uncertain at this time. However, at least parts of eastern CO/western KS may need a WW issuance pending more favorable convective trends. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37200429 38620336 39750168 39980077 39849990 39419980 38650010 37850101 37240178 37020248 37040319 37200429