Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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251 ACUS11 KWNS 291643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291642 INZ000-ILZ000-291745- Mesoscale Discussion 1473 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...portions of central IL into central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291642Z - 291745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop over the next couple of hours. Locally damaging gusts are possible. Watch issuance is uncertain. DISCUSSION...A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima is evident in water vapor imagery from near St. Louis into central IL. An isolated thunderstorm has developed over central IL on the leading edge of this vorticity max and along the southern fringe of modest vertical shear. A very moist and modestly unstable airmass resides downstream from this feature, and may support a couple of loosely organized cells through the afternoon. Locally damaging gusts may accompany this activity given increasing destabilization into the afternoon, and PW values greater than 1.75 inches enhancing wet microburst potential. A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected given the overall marginal environment. However, trends will continue to be monitored, especially as additional storm development is possible later this afternoon along the southeast-advancing cold front currently draped across northern IL. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39968921 40298819 40298678 40148585 39878533 39468537 39088584 38938704 38788793 38748899 38878972 39338974 39618968 39968921