Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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111 ACUS11 KWNS 211757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211757 OHZ000-MIZ000-211930- Mesoscale Discussion 1355 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...portions of Lower Michigan into northern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211757Z - 211930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, with the strongest storms accompanied by a couple of potentially damaging wind gusts. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating and low 70s F dewpoints beneath an upper-ridging environment is supporting convective initiation given weak MLCINH. Tropospheric lapse rates are not particularly steep, with MLCAPE constrained to around 1500 J/kg via tall and thin profiles. Vertical wind shear is weak, so mainly pulse cellular storm modes are expected. The stronger storms may produce strong wind gusts, though severe gusts should be isolated, precluding a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 44228478 43808422 43578369 43898327 44018303 44018284 43708261 43058253 42618273 42098322 41818330 41588303 41378249 41048205 40718217 40938329 41598458 41848484 42538551 43558609 44118555 44228478