262
ACUS11 KWNS 211538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211538
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-211745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...southern New England and the Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211538Z - 211745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered, generally pulse-type thunderstorms will likely
develop through this afternoon across parts of the Northeast into
southern New England. Sporadic downbursts capable of strong gusts
from 45-60 mph should yield localized tree damage. The relatively
disorganized/marginal nature of the threat should preclude severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development is underway, mainly
across parts of NY, along/ahead of a southward-sagging
west/east-oriented cold front. Additional storms will likely develop
southward over the higher terrain of central PA and eastward across
southern New England over the next few hours. The overall
kinematic/thermodynamic environment appears to be more subdued
relative to yesterday in eastern NY and New England. Modest
mid-level westerlies are generally aligned with the frontal
orientation and predominately to the cool side of the boundary. Weak
deep-layer shear will dominate the warm-moist sector to the south.
With weaker mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should largely range from
1500-2000 J/kg. While small to perhaps marginally severe hail around
1 inch diameter is possible, the predominant threat should be from
localized strong gusts in downbursts.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   43547563 43467438 43167210 42797096 42207106 41847095
            41357173 40957341 40987574 40717686 39917830 39897912
            40307912 42657736 43547563