091
ACUS11 KWNS 220125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220125
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...Parts of NE into far southeast SD...northwest
IA...and far southwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

Valid 220125Z - 220300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat continues this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Training cells are ongoing early this evening across
south-central into eastern NE along and south of a front. The
downstream 00Z sounding from OAX shows generally poor mid-level
lapse rates, with a long/skinny MLCAPE profile. Still, enough
low-level and deep-layer shear remains present to support organized
convection, including the potential for supercells. Any thunderstorm
which can remain at least semi-discrete should have some hail
threat, even with the poor lapse rates aloft and associated warm
mid-level temperatures. An isolated threat for severe/damaging winds
may also continue, especially if thunderstorms can congeal into a
small bowing cluster this evening in tandem with a gradually
strengthening low-level jet. The overall tornado threat may be
tempered by continued messy storm modes, although low-level shear
should gradually increase this evening. Depending on convective
trends, a local extension in area for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
may be warranted across parts of central/eastern NE.

..Gleason.. 06/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40850119 41829868 42139825 42749832 43089800 43539667
            43809530 43719471 43079458 42569486 41539634 40529860
            40020038 40030113 40310131 40850119