Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
862 ACUS11 KWNS 141816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141816 SDZ000-142015- Mesoscale Discussion 2067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of western and central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141816Z - 142015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms -- the strongest of which may produce strong/damaging wind gusts and possibly severe-caliber hail -- are expected from parts of western and central South Dakota. The very isolated nature of the risk anticipated at this time should preclude the need for WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated, vigorous storms east of the Black Hills area, with the strongest cells moving northeastward across the Haakon/Jackson County area at this time. The convection is ongoing within an environment featuring modestly increasing/veering flow with height, providing shear sufficient for at least multicell organization. Though CAPE will remain limited due to the dry boundary layer (around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE will prevail across the area), a deep sub-cloud layer has evolved in conjunction with diurnal heating. As such, sub-cloud evaporation -- and thus potential for acceleration of the downdrafts -- suggests that a few stronger/potentially severe gusts will be possible. However, with storms expected to remain isolated, severe-weather coverage is expected to remain insufficient to require WW consideration. ..Goss/Gleason.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 45440172 44300327 43030229 43170131 43800026 44659929 45330089 45440172