Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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320 ACUS11 KWNS 262320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262319 TXZ000-OKZ000-270045- Mesoscale Discussion 1436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle...South Plains...southwest Oklahoma and western North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262319Z - 270045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts and isolated marginal hail are possible late this afternoon into early evening. Isolated storm coverage is expected to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along an outflow boundary where temperatures along and near it have risen into the low 100s F. Shear is not overly strong, particularly with western extent, but southerly surface winds and modest northerly mid-level flow has contributed to around 30-35 kts of effective shear. Very steep lapse rates through about 3 km and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will foster some risk of severe wind gusts (via evaporative cooling) as storms intensify and then collapse. If storms can cluster, a locally greater wind threat would exist. Currently this appears possible in southwest Oklahoma into parts of western North Texas. Additionally, some clustering could occur out of convection in the northwest Texas Panhandle and move south/southeast into the greater buoyancy. ..Wendt/Smith.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34370296 34930287 35310241 35399980 34749835 34329828 33839853 33549943 33730118 33860208 34200277 34370296