352
ACUS11 KWNS 212319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212318
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-220045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern NE into southeast
SD...northwest IA...and southwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

Valid 212318Z - 220045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
continues.

SUMMARY...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms in
central/northeast Nebraska may pose an isolated threat for severe
wind in the short term. Other strong to severe thunderstorms in and
near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 should have some hail/wind threat
as well.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convection is ongoing early this
evening across central into northeast NE. Although this activity is
occurring in a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment
along/near a surface front, it has struggled to
intensify/consolidate thus far. There still appears to be some
chance for this cluster to become more organized this evening as a
modest south-southwesterly low-level jet gradually strengthens over
the central Plains and mid MO Valley. If further strengthening of
this activity can occur, then severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph
would likely be the main threat as these thunderstorms spread
generally east-northeastward this evening. Other, more cellular
thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast SD to the north of the
front. Isolated hail and strong to locally severe winds may occur
with this convection as well. The tornado threat remains less clear
owing to messy storm modes. Still, some increase in low-level shear
is anticipated this evening, and any persistent supercell along/near
the surface front could pose some threat for a tornado.

..Gleason.. 06/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40819975 42359986 42869975 43819761 44189632 44149570
            43899533 43139531 42609560 40989847 40679941 40819975