Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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959 ACUS11 KWNS 282208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282208 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-282345- Mesoscale Discussion 1463 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of northwestern into north-central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282208Z - 282345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail or wind gusts may accompany the stronger storms through the remainder of the afternoon. The severe threat should remain isolated overall, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an overall increase in storm coverage and intensity across portions of northwestern into north-central CO, where observed MESH cores are suggesting hail may be approaching 1 inch in diameter in spots. These storms are intensifying within a adequately sheared troposphere (modestly elongated hodographs based on RAP forecasting soundings), with low and mid-level lapse rates in the 9+ C/km range. As such, strong and sustained updrafts should obtain multicell and supercell structures through the afternoon, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 40281024 41130821 41220623 40650505 40010498 39440547 39220678 39380816 39620888 40281024