Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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980 ACUS11 KWNS 280346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280346 SDZ000-280515- Mesoscale Discussion 1459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 280346Z - 280515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...At least a few severe gusts could occur in eastern SD, east of ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. An additional downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed pending favorable convective trends and high enough confidence in continued severe gusts. DISCUSSION...The southern portions of a mature MCS continue to rapidly progress eastward, with echo tops exceeding 50 kft at times. The southern portion of this MCS remains well organized, and continues to produce measured severe gusts (per recent surface observations). Though MLCINH continues to increase, 03Z mesoanalysis also shows 3000 J/kg MLCAPE immediately to the south of the ongoing MCS, which is likely supporting continued severe potential. Surface temperatures and MLCAPE do decrease with eastern extent into eastern SD, so it is unclear if/how much of the severe gust threat will extend past the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. As such, convective intensity and wind report trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance over the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43899814 44249870 45399867 45779867 45909859 45899782 45779734 44819694 44239706 44029734 43899814