176
ACUS11 KWNS 022328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022327
ILZ000-WIZ000-030130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of far southern Wisconsin into northern
and central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 022327Z - 030130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A QLCS is moving eastward across eastern IA and is
approaching the MS River. Though buoyancy and shear decreases
rapidly with eastern extent, the approaching QLCS may persist with a
risk of isolated 50-60 mph wind gusts. Convective trends will be
monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing QLCS, including a pronounced line-end
mesovortex accompanied by a rear-inflow jet, continues to track
eastward across eastern IA with a history of 60-80 mph wind gusts
and reported tornadoes. The QLCS mesovortex is preceded by strong
low-level shear, characterized by 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH (per 23Z
mesoanalysis and the latest DVN VAD profiler data). As such, the
QLCS may remain organized as it crosses the MS river in a few hours.
However, buoyancy decreases/MLCINH increases substantially with
eastward extent, which could weaken the MCS substantially by the
time it enters IL. As such, continued severe potential east of the
current bounds of WWs 497-498 is a bit uncertain. As such,
convective trends will continue to be monitored for continued severe
gust potential and subsequent need for a WW issuance as the QLCS
begins to exit the ongoing watches.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   39909085 40509029 41478974 42348972 42848969 42968946
            42648884 41908847 40968868 40308914 39908981 39759042
            39909085