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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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803 FXUS64 KMEG 290211 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 911 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A warm night is on the horizon as current temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with light south/southeast winds at the surface under mostly clearly skies across the Mid-South as we sit under amplified mid-level ridging. Tomorrow`s afternoon highs will skyrocket into the mid to upper 90s as mid-level ridging continues to build across the region, leading to dangerously hot conditions. Heat index values >=105 F will be analyzed across the area tomorrow with portions of northeast Arkansas and the Mississippi Delta seeing heat index values >=110 F. Areas with heat index values >=110F will be under an Excessive Heat Warning while the rest of the area will be under a Heat Advisory effective 11 AM through 8 PM tomorrow. Shower and thunderstorm chances return to northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee tomorrow afternoon and into continuing into Sunday as a shortwave and associated cold front push in from the West, de-amplifying the present ridge. A conditional chance for severe weather exists tomorrow evening and into the overnight hours as convection will be entering into an environment with forecast surface based CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg and Bulk shear values around 20-25 kts. Primary threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and localized heavy rainfall. The current forecast package is on track AEH && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Hot conditions will continue through Saturday as ridging continues to amplify over the Mid-South. A cold front will bring increasing rain chances to the region starting Saturday, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Missouri Bootheel and northeastern Arkansas. Hot and dry conditions resume on Tuesday and look to persist through the latter part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Latest water vapor analysis shows mid-level heights continue to rise, as mid-level ridging amplifies over the region. Today`s temperatures are expected to warm into the low 90s with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This has yielded heat index values near or above 100 degrees area wide today. Heat index values across portions of the MS delta are a bit warmer near 105 degrees, where a heat advisory remains in effect until 8pm CDT. Temperatures on Saturday will be even hotter, as a mid-level heights continue to build. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for areas in the MS Delta and west of the river, with a Heat Advisory in effect elsewhere across the Mid-South. Dangerously hot temperatures greater than 105 degrees will be common in the advisory area with temperatures greater than 110 degrees in areas under the Excessive Heat Warning. Therefore, be sure to know the signs of heat related illness and limit your time outdoors. Some breakdown of expansive ridging looks to occur starting late Saturday, as a mid-level trough moves across the Upper Midwest. A cold front associated with this trough will move toward the Mid- South on Saturday night. Precipitation chances will increase ahead of this front with the possibility for some strong to severe storms on Saturday night. Forecast soundings from CAM guidance depicts elevated instability (~1500+ J/kg), rooted near 850mb that will be coupled with around 30-40 knots of effective shear, suggesting the potential for damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Missouri Bootheel and northeastern Arkansas. Precipitation chances will continue across the Mid-South on Sunday, as a cold front moves through the Mid-South. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday and Monday, though some areas across north Mississippi may still see temperatures approaching the mid 90s. Temperatures will quickly rebound on Tuesday with possible heat headlines across portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Wednesday and Thursday look even hotter with the potential for more widespread heat headlines, though some of this may be mitigated by increasing precipitation chances. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period. Winds will be mainly from the south at around 5 knots tonight through Saturday morning. Winds will shift to the southwest by late Saturday morning. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026-027-035-048-049-058. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ028-036. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115. MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ007-010>012-020. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>006-008- 009-013>017-021>024. TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...ARS