094
FXUS64 KMEG 290818
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
318 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Following areas of early morning patchy fog, temperatures are
forecast to warm into the low to upper 80s today. Increasing shower
and thunderstorm chances are expected to occur across portions of
eastern Arkansas and north Mississippi later today. A cold front
will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the Mid-South starting
on Thursday with a gradual warming trend on Sunday. An unsettled
weather pattern should bring increasing rain chances to the region
starting late this week and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Areas of patchy fog may occur tonight and into the early morning
hours, as temperatures continue to radiate under calm winds and
clear skies. High temperatures today will range from the low to
upper 80s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Cloud cover
should begin to increase from the west later today, as mid-level
disturbance moves toward the Mid-South. This feature is expected
to bring increasing precipitation chances to portions of eastern
Arkansas and northern Mississippi. A cold front will move through
the region tomorrow, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the
Mid-South through at least Saturday, followed by a gradual
warming trend on Sunday.


An unsettled weather pattern is still forecast to affect the Mid-
South starting later this week, lasting into early part of next
week as several low amplitude mid to upper level perturbations
parse a mostly quasi zonal flow regime. This pattern will bring
daily rain chances to the region through a bulk of the forecast
period. While there does not appear to be a good signal for severe
potential in the extended period, the 00z run of the
deterministic ECMWF shows a relatively unstable environment with
steep mid-level lapse rates and marginally favorable effective
shear magnitudes across portions of the Mid-South on Monday
evening. Furthermore, there appears to be a southward surging
convective line depicted by this model that emanates over portions
of the Mid-West. Despite the robustness of this particular
solution, other global guidance and related ensemble counterparts
appear to differ, which offers little confidence in this scenario
at this time. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions will remain through the TAF period as high
pressure continues to dominate. Fog is possible at MKL/TUP later
later this morning under clear skies, though confidence was not
high enough to include in TAF. A quasi-stationary front will move
south, over the Mid- South, tomorrow afternoon as light winds
slowly shift east/northeast. VCSH is expected to move over both
MEM and TUP tomorrow evening along a weak shortwave.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...AEH