515
FXUS64 KMEG 300236
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
936 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Another warm night is on the horizon as current temperatures are
in the mid 80s to upper 80s under mostly clear skies with stratus
deck moving in from the northwest. A mid-level trough and
subsequent cold front will continue to push east, increasing our
rainfall chances now and into around sunset tomorrow. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly spread east
across the Missouri Bootheel, portions of northeast Arkansas, and
portions of West Tennessee as we head into the overnight hours. A
low chance for severe storms still exists now and into the
overnight period over portions of northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and portions of West Tennessee. The primary
threats remain damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Tomorrow will be another dangerously hot day for portions of
southwest Tennessee, portions of northeast Arkansas, and northern
Mississippi as ridging remains present over these areas. Heat
index values >=105 F will be likely over these same areas with the
Mississippi Delta once again seeing heat index values >=110 F.
Areas with indices >=110 F will have an Excessive Heat Warning in
affect and areas with indices >=105 F will have a Heat Advisory in
affect 10 AM through 7 PM tomorrow. Population in these areas
should limit outdoor activity during these times tomorrow. Re-
development looks to occur tomorrow afternoon ahead of the
aforementioned cold front with PWATs nearing the 90th percentile
at upwards of 2.3 inches. Localized heavy rainfall will be likely
with this re- development.

AEH

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Excessive heat will continue into Sunday for portions of the Mid-
South until a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing
rain chances. Hot conditions return to the region on Tuesday and
will last through at least Friday when another cold front brings
cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Temperatures across the Mid-South have risen into the mid 90s
with dewpoint values in the mid to upper 70s, as mid-level ridging
has amplified over the region. This has yielded heat index values
have ranged between 105 to 115 degrees today. As dewpoint values
are a bit higher than originally anticipated, have elected
extended the heat advisory and excessive heat warning until 9 pm
CDT to account for this trend. The remainder of the current
forecast thinking remains similar the prior forecast in that a
cold front, associated with a belt of mid-level troughing, will
advance toward the Mid-South this evening. Ahead of this front,
shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase across portions of
southeastern Missouri, eventually moving into the Missouri
bootheel and northeastern Arkansas. The latest CAM guidance has
been quite variable with respect to the longevity and intensity of
this activity which suggests low confidence in the severe
thunderstorm impacts tonight. Even so, strong to severe
thunderstorms remain possible with the main threats of damaging
winds, isolated severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

The heat will continue across portions of northern Mississippi,
eastern Arkansas and southwestern Tennessee tomorrow, as heat
index values are expected to range between 105 to over 110
degrees. As such, an Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for
the MS Delta region with a Heat Advisory for remainder of northern
Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee starting at 15z tomorrow.
CAM guidance appears to redevelop convection ahead of the surface
cold front tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings depict moderate
to strong instability, weak shear, and abnormally high PWAT
values (greater than 2 inches). Given these variables, the
potential exists for water loaded downdrafts with afternoon storm
development (e.g. wet microbursts). Cooler temperatures are
forecast for areas behind the front on Sunday and Monday.

As mid-level ridging strengthens over the Mid-South, hot and dry
conditions are anticipated with the possible return of heat
headlines starting Tuesday. This pattern looks to continue
through Friday when mid-level troughing amplifies over the Midwest
bringing a cold front, cooler temperatures, and increasing
precipitation chances to the Mid-South.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible for the early evening hours.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected later tonight mainly over
northeast Arkansas before weakening overnight. Another round of
scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly over portions of
west Tennessee and north Mississippi Sunday afternoon. Winds will
be mainly from the southwest around 5 knots tonight before
shifting to the northwest Sunday morning and to the north by
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ036-048-049.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ058.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-
     007-008-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>006-009-
     013>017-023-024.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ007-
     008-010>012-020>022.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009-
     013>017-021>024.

TN...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001-
     002-019-020-048>051-088-089.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ049-050-
     052>055-088>092.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ003-004-021-022-
     052>055-090>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...ARS