059
FXUS64 KMEG 280850
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
350 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Hot temperatures return today and will last through Saturday as a
strong upper level ridge dominates weather patterns. Rain chances
increase late Saturday before another hot and dry spell resumes
on Monday, lasting through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Hot and muggy conditions will resume today as a 592 dam ridge
centers over the ArkLaTex, allowing for strong moisture return
into the Mid-South. By midday, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are
anticipated. This, combined with afternoon highs in the low and
mid 90s, will result in heat index values at and above 105F for
portions of the Mississippi Delta. As such, a Heat Advisory will
go into effect at 10AM for this area. Additional heat headlines
are likely on Saturday as the aforementioned ridge strengthens to
around 597 dam. Most, if not all, of the Mid-South will likely
require a Heat Advisory with a few areas potentially hitting
Excessive Heat Warning criteria.

Elsewhere in CONUS on Saturday, a cold front will eject southeast
across the Midwest. By midday, a Mesoscale Convective System is
anticipated to form over central Missouri and trek into the Mid-
South. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase locally in
the evening hours, with a low end severe weather threat emerging
for areas of northeast Arkansas into west Tennessee. Damaging
winds will be the primary concern through sunset. Redevelopment
of showers and storms is likely by midday Sunday, which should
curb the need for additional heat headlines.

Dry and hot conditions will return on Monday and last through
midweek. Unfortunately, this means heat headlines will likely be
needed again starting Tuesday. The next best chance of rain looks
to be on the 4th, so stay tuned.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected remain through the TAF period. A
brief lowering to IFR may occur at TUP around 08Z though
confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. Fog may also
form at TUP around 10Z, however, confidence was not high enough to
include in TAF. Light winds will gradually shift from the
northeast to the south/southeast.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AEH