230
FXUS64 KMEG 150800
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
300 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will continue across the
area today. Dry conditions will finally return to northwest
Tennessee late tonight and area wide by Tuesday morning. Sunny
skies and dry weather will persist through early next week with
normal temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Rainy conditions will continue today across the Mid-South as a
remnant low, that was once Tropical System Francine, churns over
north Mississippi. Most prominent at 925 mb, but extending to
700mb, a moisture field moving from southeast to northwest keeps
rain bands training across the area.

As the low slowly sinks south, the aforementioned moisture field
will sink south as well allowing the rain bands to soak drought
stricken north Mississippi. There is very low probabilities for
thunder (~40% or less) with the shower activity today.
Thunderstorms would be most likely across north Mississippi,
particularly the Delta region. Thunder chances would increase if
there are any cloud breaks allowing surface based instability to
increase with daytime heating. With these bands, QPF for areas
south of I-40 is 0.5-1.5". Areas to the north of I-40 will see an
inch or less through tomorrow morning with the highest amounts
being in northeast Arkansas.

Impacts from the remnant low will finally end for northwest
Tennessee near midnight tonight. The entire Mid-South should
finally dry out by Monday evening. Monday night into Tuesday
morning, fog development is possible particularly over northwest
Tennessee under clearing skies, light winds, and a saturated
surface. On Tuesday, the sun will shine with near climatological
temperatures (in the mid to upper 80s) for September to return as
high pressure builds. As a synoptic blocking pattern sets up, this
pattern will continue through next weekend.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

An upper low will continue to churn over the Mid-South leading to
a pretty decent IFR deck spreading across JBR/MEM/TUP over the
next few hours. MKL may lower to IFR, though confidence was not
high enough to include in TAF. By daybreak, conditions begin to
improve to MVFR across much of the area. An improvement to VFR
conditions finally looks to begin around sunset tomorrow at
JBR/MKL/TUP. This same low will also bring intermediate periods of
-SHRA/BR with reduced vsbys across all terminals. Northeast winds
will remain elevated around 7-12 kts through the TAF period.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ004>006-009-
     014>017-023-024.

TN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TNZ091-092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AEH