747
FXUS62 KMFL 271123
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
723 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

South Florida remains nestled within a quiescent synoptic regime,
with a longwave trough extending into the Gulf of Mexico and
quasi-zonal flow predominantly encompassing the southern
peninsula. This will maintain a westerly flow regime through much
of the low to mid troposphere, which will maintain a fairly
persistent and predictable convective regime. Showers and
thunderstorms will initially spawn across the Gulf coast and
interior region, gradually propagating eastward into an unstable
airmass characterized by higher values of theta-e. Localized low-
level convergent maxima ahead of the Atlantic sea breeze should
allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon to traverse the east coast metropolitan area. The
westerly flow regime should allow for a gradual eastward
propagation, however easterly boundary layer wind augmentation via
the Atlantic sea-breeze may allow for storms to meander or stall
- allowing for the potential for localized and urban flooding.

To round out the week, an elongated ridge of high pressure will
gradually expand over South Florida, causing a further weakening
in the synoptic flow regime. The positioning of this feature will
allow for a gradual backing of winds such that surface winds are
predominately out of the south/southeast. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to impact much of the region once again,
with localized flooding being the primary concerns for today.
Overall, not much of a departure from a typical wet season day
across South Florida - rinse and repeat!

Maximum temperature will be seasonable and typical for this time
of year, with maxes ranging from upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight
low temperatures will span the low to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

As we approach the weekend, the synoptic pattern will undergo
notable changes with the development of upper-level ridging over
the deep South. This ridge will cause winds to prevail out of the
south on Saturday, and then from the east-southeast by Sunday
evening.

During this period, mesoscale dynamics will play a crucial role in
convective initiation. Near-normal precipitable water (PWAT)
values will support the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day. The steady easterly surface flow will lead
to a typical convective pattern: isolated showers or thunderstorms
over the East Coast Metro area in the morning, with increasing
coverage and a shift towards the interior and Gulf Coast areas
during the afternoon and early evening. Localized flooding remains
a primary concern due to the weak flow pattern.

In the long term, temperatures are expected to remain near or
slightly above seasonal averages. Highs will range from the upper
80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices reaching into the triple
digits. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

SHRA/TSRA will develop across SFL and push eastward towards the
east coast terminals late this morning into the early afternoon
hours. Bouts of IFR/LIFR cigs/vis could be realized if SHRA/TSRA
directly impacts east coast terminals. Amendments and TEMPOs will
likely be needed. Light SW flow will continue across the area with
a pinned Atlantic sea-breeze along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Gentle southwesterly winds will remain in place across the local
waters for most of the week. Both Atlantic and Gulf waters will be
generally benign, with seas no greater than 1 to 2 feet. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher winds and
seas each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  78  92  79 /  60  20  50  20
West Kendall     92  76  92  77 /  60  20  50  20
Opa-Locka        93  78  93  79 /  60  20  50  20
Homestead        91  78  91  79 /  50  20  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  90  79 /  60  30  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  78  92  79 /  60  30  50  30
Pembroke Pines   94  79  94  80 /  60  20  50  20
West Palm Beach  92  76  92  78 /  60  30  50  20
Boca Raton       92  77  92  79 /  60  30  50  30
Naples           90  79  92  79 /  40  10  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Hadi