Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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530 FXUS62 KMFL 261716 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 116 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Another warm and sunny couple of days are on tap for the rest of the holiday weekend as ridging continues to build over the area. There will be chances for isolated showers, possibly a storm or two, each afternoon across southeast FL once the sea breezes start pushing inland. Surface winds will become generally light with the ridge over the area, which combined with the lack of cloud cover will result in temperatures hitting the mid 90s today, and mid-upper 90s on Monday afternoon across much of South FL. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Models depict a change in the synoptic pattern that will bring prevailing unsettled weather conditions through the long term. A trough will persist over the E CONUS during much of the workweek with several impulses moving around its base. This will erode the ridge over SoFlo, while pushing a sfc boundary into the northern half of the state. Long range solutions show this front stalling around central on Wednesday, with SoFlo remaining in the warm sector through the end of the week. Latest solutions bring PoPs into the 40-50 percent range each afternoon as model soundings showing PWAT values around 2 inches, along with increasing lapse rates. Expect a daily threat of possible urban flooding, especially with the stronger thunderstorms. Sea breezes will once again become the focal point for deep convection, with potential for localized downpours. However, even with the increased rain coverage, expect current hot conditions to continue. Afternoon highs will remain in the low-mid 90s across metro areas, and mid to upper 90s over some interior areas. Even higher heat index values are possible, generally 100+ degrees each day through at least Thursday. By Saturday, a brief relief is possible as winds shift to the northeast, but only a few degrees below current values. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Generally VFR through the period. East Coast sites could see some showers later this afternoon but cig/vis reductions are not expected at this time. Westerly winds will prevail at KAPF through the evening, while winds along the East Coast will become more easterly as the sea breeze moves inland after 19Z. Light and variable winds return overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Moderate southerly winds continue today before veering to a SE flow on Monday and through the middle of the week. The Gulf waters may experience westerly onshore flow each afternoon with the sea breezes. Conditions may approach exercise criteria today and Monday with wind speeds around 15kts and possibly higher gusts. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day across the local waters. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s each afternoon this holiday weekend. The records are as follows: 5/26 5/27 MIA: 94-1949 96-1902 FLL: 94-1924 94-1924 PBI: 93-2000 96-1928 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 93 80 92 / 10 30 20 50 West Kendall 76 95 77 94 / 10 30 20 40 Opa-Locka 79 95 79 95 / 10 30 20 50 Homestead 78 93 79 92 / 10 20 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 92 80 92 / 10 30 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 93 79 92 / 10 30 30 50 Pembroke Pines 79 96 80 95 / 10 30 20 50 West Palm Beach 76 95 77 94 / 10 20 30 50 Boca Raton 78 94 78 94 / 10 30 30 50 Naples 76 93 78 92 / 0 10 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV/AR LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...ATV