691
FXUS62 KMFL 130612
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
212 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The diffuse surface boundary that has lingered will give way to a
small area of high pressure building off the Florida coast over the
Atlantic. This surface high pressure will give way to the next
disturbance moving along northern Gulf coast comes into phase with a
mid-level low over the central plains heading into Tuesday.

South Florida will sit south of the larger scale support for
convection though pooling moisture across the region will lead to
building humidity and the stifling sunshine in the afternoons could
see heat index values climb into the triple digits. Sea breeze
development is anticipated each afternoon with the potential for
some showers and thunderstorms, mainly inland around boundary
collisions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid-level low will become cut off from the mean flow aloft mid to
late week as it moves from the Mississippi River valley across the
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated surface cold
front will pinch the high pressure over much of the peninsula of
Florida south and east by late week. The frontal boundary could
enter south central Florida Wednesday into Thursday, briefly
allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front
lacks the support for more vigorous activity which could provide
more substantial relief from the heat.

A window for hazardous heat will open Wednesday that could linger
into the weekend. Much of southern Florida could experience heat
necessitating at least a Heat Advisory. Overnight low temperatures
along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall
below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall
below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days
where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief
overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic
off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward
advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move
into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could
linger through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

FEW to SCT MVFR ceilings this morning. E/SE winds 5-10 kts this
morning increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts from late
morning through the afternoon. APF will develop a westerly Gulf
breeze after 18Z until around 00Z. VCTS was entered at PBI/FXE/FLL
after 21Z where the chances of thunderstorms are highest today.
Sub VFR ceilings and visibilities along with erratic winds are
possible in and near thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Tightening pressure gradient tonight into Tuesday will result in
hazardous SE winds across the Atlantic waters, with cautionary
winds for the rest of the South FL waters. Seas building in the
Atlantic to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms
possible each day this week which may result in locally hazardous
winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A high risk of rip currents is in effect for the Atlantic beaches
through Tuesday due to onshore easterly flow. The risk lessens mid
to end of the week as the flow becomes more southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  90  80 /  20  10  10   0
West Kendall     91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        91  79  92  79 /  20  10  20   0
Homestead        90  79  90  79 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  79  89  80 /  30  10  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  87  79  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
Pembroke Pines   92  79  93  80 /  20  10  20   0
West Palm Beach  88  77  92  77 /  40  30  30  10
Boca Raton       88  79  91  79 /  30  30  30  10
Naples           92  78  92  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday
     evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CMF