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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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125 FXUS66 KMFR 262159 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 259 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SHORT TERM...A line of higher clouds are moving northeast into more of Douglas and Josephine counties this afternoon. The stratus is still present at the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. and will continue tonight. Winds are strong this afternoon with gusts near 25-35 mph this afternoon and high profile vehicles will have difficulty driving. A cold front is passing today. Drizzle and light rain, less than a tenth of an inch, is possible tonight near the coast and into northern Douglas County. This front will bring a cooldown to near normal temperatures east of the Cascades with slightly below normal temperatures west. This translates to mostly 70s and low 80s with 60s at the coast. Tonight will also be a colder night east side with lows in the 30s again. Chemult has a 70-80% probability to see temperatures fall to or below 36 degrees tonight. Northerly winds will continue tomorrow and early Saturday and will not be as breezy as the winds today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Friday afternoon with highs near 80 east of the Cascades and some upper 80s in the Rogue Valley. Hermansen .LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...Models are consistent in timing another marine push into the west side here later Saturday or Saturday night with west side marine clouds and possibly some additional coastal drizzle. Thereafter the common theme is warming weather under building high pressure and stable conditions next week. NBM shows chances of exceeding 90 in Medford increasing from only 38% Tuesday to 58% Wednesday, then to above 60% Thursday through Friday. Stavish && .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...MVFR/IFR conditions are along the coast. Inland of the coastal mountains, expect mainly VFR conditions. Some areas of MVFR/IFR may develop again this evening in the Umpqua Basin, mainly near and northwest of Roseburg. Another breezy/gusty day is expected this afternoon and evening ahead of an incoming front. -CC/Hermansen && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM Wednesday, June 26, 2024...Relatively calm conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. A weak front is pushing through the region today and is bringing a deep layer of low clouds along with a chance of showers or drizzle. Gusty north winds will return late tomorrow into Friday, with steep seas and advisory level conditions returning at that time. Another front and deep marine layer are likely to disrupt the pattern this weekend, with improved conditions expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag conditions being observed this afternoon across much of the east with sites gusting 30-40 mph and RHs into the 10-15% range. Winds are going to be on the decrease tonight. Thursday morning more marine clouds will push into the west side with some possible scattered coverage through early morning over the Rogue Valley and banked into the Siskiyous. Later Thursday through Friday should see a short warming/drying trend before another weak trough passage and marine push by mid to late weekend. This event shouldn`t cool the temperatures too much. Thereafter next week looks to be a fairly high confidence warming and drying event. Some red ERC numbers are showing up toward Thursday and Friday in the GACC`s 10-day projected table indicating values reaching or exceeding the 95th percentile. Stavish && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625. CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$