Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 260957
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for WBTWMA - Unit 4A...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
557 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Light west to southwest winds will keep the east coast sea breeze
close to the I-95 corridor with the boundary nearing the burn site
this afternoon. Eastward moving showers and storms are forecast to
develop this afternoon ahead of the west coast sea breeze. Coverage
of showers and storms increases in vicinity of the burn site around
2 pm as boundary collisions happen nearby. Winds become variable in
vicinity of thunderstorms generally remaining 35 mph or less.
Afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 90s. Humid
conditions will produce heat index values up to 106 degrees, and
a Moderate Heat Risk exists today. Poor to fair smoke dispersion is
expected.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the afternoon, then showers likely and chance
                    of thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1200, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph early in
                    the afternoon, then shifting to the south 5 to
                    6 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 4600 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....4 increasing 28 late in the morning increasing
                    to 41 early in the afternoon decreasing to 30.
LVORI...............10 decreasing to 6 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 3 late in the morning decreasing
                    to 1 early in the afternoon increasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  29  32  41  47  53  58  60  55
Weather cov.....        SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  30  40  60  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............81  85  87  90  91  92  90  89  91
RH..............86  76  72  65  62  60  64  66  62
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   3   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   6   7   7   7   7   7   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.3 3.3 4.1 4.6 4.5 3.5 3.4 3.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   5   6   8   7   6   8
Dispersion idx..12  18  25  24  32  41  31  29  30
LVORI...........5   3   3   3   1   1   1   3   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    evening, then chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2200, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southwest around
                    5 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 9 mph shifting to the west
                    overnight.
Dispersion index....24 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........55     61     55     41     15     13
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     50     20     0      0      0
LAL.............3      3      2      1      1      1
Temp............88     85     80     79     78     77
RH..............68     75     88     90     91     94
20 ft wind......S 6    S 5    SW 3   SW 3   W 5    SW 5
20 ft wind gust.7      7      6      6      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....2000   800    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..S 9    S 8    S 8    SW 8   W 8    W 9
Dispersion idx..24     6      4      4      4      4
LVORI...........3      4      6      6      6      7

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
                    Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 4700 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 60 late in the morning
increasing to 71 decreasing to 57 late
in the afternoon.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........11        28        32        43
Weather cov.....          S CHC     S CHC     LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         20        20        60
LAL.............1         2         2         3
Temp............76        81        89        92
RH..............98        85        64        58
20 FT wind......SW 5G8    SW 6G10   W 7G12    SW 8G13
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1900      4100      4200
Transport wind..SW 9      W 10      W 13      W 14
Dispersion idx..4         26        63        68
LVORI...........9         4         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Law
Requested by...Melanie Mancuso
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416705.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL melanie.mancuso@myfwc.com