039
FXUS64 KMOB 302338
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours.
Some brief and localized MVFR/IFR conditions will occur near the
showers and storms this evening, and again during the day on
Monday. Light and variable winds this evening become light
northwesterly late tonight and Monday. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

An upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area through
Monday. This will maintain a generally northerly flow pattern
aloft. The combination of weak shortwaves rotating around this
ridge, daytime heating and the seabreeze circulation will continue
to result in scattered to locally numerous showers and
thunderstorms. We have ongoing convection late this afternoon,
which will diminish during the early to mid evening hours, and
much of the same is expected again on Monday. The storms will be
most numerous near the coast this evening and again early Monday
morning and then over inland areas through the afternoon hours
Monday and into the early evening hours before gradually
dissipating by the mid to late the evening hours. After peaking in
the mid 90s (and with Heat Index values reaching upwards of 110
degrees) earlier today, temperatures have now dropped somewhat
across the region this afternoon with the rain cooled air.
Dewpoints are still expected to remain primarily in the mid to
upper 70s on Monday, and combined with daytime highs tomorrow
reaching well into the 90s before the onset of the more widespread
rains, we will again be looking at heat indices to likely peaking
in the 108-110 degree range, at least for a period of time. As a
result, another Heat Advisory has been issued for most of the area
for Monday. Lows tonight will mainly be in the low to mid 70s
across most of the area, but upper 70s near the coast and maybe
even a few low 80s on the barrier islands. A high risk of rip
currents remains in effect for the rest of today, to be followed
by a moderate risk on Monday and into middle part of the week.
DS/12

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Hot and humid. Potentially dangerous beach conditions by next
weekend.

An amplifying ridge aloft builds into the Deep South on Tuesday
and Wednesday. The ridge begins to flatten as we move deeper into
the week as a train of shortwaves cruise across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Ridging remains loosely overhead through
next weekend. Down at the surface, a weakening boundary remains
draped across the southern portion of the local area early in the
period, but eventually washes out by mid-week. A surface high
slides into the western Atlantic and generally keeps a grip on the
local area through the remainder of the week. Another front
slides into the Deep South over the weekend, but likely remains
north of our area. Ample deep layer moisture remains over the
region through the week and into next week. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms are expected each afternoon through mid-week
given the lingering boundary and ample moisture overhead. Coverage
becomes more scattered (typical summertime hit-and-miss coverage)
as we roll into the 4th of July and beyond.

Summertime heat persists with highs topping out in the 90s each
day. Given the moisture over the region, dewpoints will be juicy,
so the heat indices will approach and potentially exceed Heat
Advisory criteria each day.

Beach and Coastal Notes: Rip current risk remains LOW through the
4th of July. Model guidance shows increasing swell packets
(associated with Beryl) reaching our coastline as we head into
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The RCMOS also indicates a quick
uptick in the rip current probabilities by Friday afternoon. The
rip current risk looks to remain low to potentially moderate
through the day on Friday, but may quickly increase to a HIGH by
next weekend. Additionally, the swell may lead to increasing surf
conditions, beach erosion problems, and wave run-up issues at the
beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable spots like the west
end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens). We still have plenty of
time to watch the trends over the coming days, but next weekend
has the potential to be very dangerous at the local beaches. Based
on next weekend having lots of additional visitors around the
holiday, we want to stress this potential. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. Otherwise, a light diurnal flow
pattern is expected through Monday with westerly to northwesterly
flow developing each night and a southwesterly flow developing
each afternoon. By Tuesday, a light southerly to southeasterly
flow becomes established for the remainder of the week. A
generally light onshore flow then continues into late week. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  97  77  92  77  90  76  93 /  30  40  10  60  20  70  20  40
Pensacola   77  96  79  90  79  90  78  91 /  40  50  30  60  30  50  20  40
Destin      80  93  80  90  79  90  79  91 /  50  60  30  50  30  50  20  30
Evergreen   74  97  74  92  73  93  73  94 /  30  30  10  70  20  70  10  50
Waynesboro  74  95  71  96  74  92  73  95 /  30  10   0  40  10  60  10  40
Camden      73  94  72  92  72  91  73  94 /  30  10  10  50  20  50  10  40
Crestview   75  96  75  92  74  93  73  95 /  40  60  20  70  20  70  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ052-053-055-
     056-059-060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-
     266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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