022
FXUS64 KMOB 282349
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
649 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Regional radar mosaic is currently detecting scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms inland areas that are expected to
gradually dissipate through mid-evening. Scattered showers will
likely develop along the coast beginning around 29/08z, and drift
inland late tonight through mid-afternoon Saturday. Added PROB30
groups to cover the convective activity for now. Temporary
reductions in visibilities and gusty winds will occur with the
strongest storms. Winds will be light out of the south-southwest
through the forecast. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Rinse and repeat, the summertime theme! Subtle troughing remains
in place over the southeastern US with upper ridging remaining to
our west. Our subtle surface troughing will become a little more
washed out on Saturday leading to a more standard diurnal pattern
focused on the land and seabreeze circulation. Ongoing showers and
storms will likely continue into the evening before slowly
dissipating across the area. Like most summer days, attention
turns to the nearshore Gulf waters overnight and into the early
morning as storms develop along a likely convectively enhanced
land breeze. Expect some showers along the coast during the
morning and then a brief period around midday where it just gets
hot. Storms will once again fire along the seabreeze and any
remnants of the surface trough during the afternoon. The main
threats could be a locally damaging wind gust and heavy rainfall
with the strongest of storms. Temperatures will remain warm but
given the potential for showers and storms earlier in the day,
temperatures will not go full on surface of the sun and as a
result we will likely fall below advisory criteria. That heat
comes later in the week. Expect heat indices to range in the 100
to 105 range during the afternoon tomorrow. BB/03

SHORT TERM  AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Upper level high pressure strengthen and gradually build eastward
from the vicinity of Texas/Oklahoma and into the Lower Mississippi
Valley region late this weekend into the early part of next week.
The upper ridge will continue to build across much of the Deep
South and Gulf Coast region by Tuesday and continuing through the
middle to latter part of the week. Hot and very humid conditions
are expected each day Sunday through Friday with highs reaching
into the 90s and afternoon heat index values likely ranging
between 105-110 degrees each day. Heat Advisories will likely
become necessary over much of our region by Sunday and Monday and
potentially each day through the week as the ridge builds
overhead. Deep layer moisture will remain pooled over our forecast
area through Monday while a weak surface boundary also remains
oriented across portions of our CWA. We expect scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop both days in the
very moist and unstable environment that will be in place over our
region along with the presence of the boundary. Convective
coverage may tend to become more scattered in nature, especially
during the middle to latter part of the week as the ridging builds
further east over our region. Plentiful moisture and instability
will still support keeping daily POPs in the chance range each
day. /21

MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A moderate westerly to southwesterly flow is expected to continue
through tonight, with winds decreasing by Saturday. For Saturday
night and into early next week, a light diurnal flow pattern
develops, with westerly to northwesterly flow developing each
night and a southwesterly flow developing each afternoon. By
Tuesday, a light southerly to southeasterly flow becomes
established. Showers and storms are expected to continue
developing each morning. A few storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds and waterspouts. 96/ BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  91  76  93  76  95  76  93 /  40  60  20  60  40  60  20  50
Pensacola   79  92  79  93  79  92  79  91 /  40  60  30  60  50  70  30  50
Destin      81  90  79  91  80  91  80  90 /  50  60  20  60  50  70  30  50
Evergreen   73  92  74  93  74  96  74  94 /  30  70  30  70  40  60  20  50
Waynesboro  73  92  73  94  74  95  73  95 /  40  70  20  60  30  40  10  40
Camden      73  91  73  93  74  95  73  94 /  30  70  30  70  30  40  10  40
Crestview   74  94  74  94  76  95  75  93 /  20  70  20  70  40  70  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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