170
FXUS64 KMOB 300637
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
137 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours.
Late night coastal showers and storms will again possibly develop
impacting TAF sites before moving farther inland during the day.
Some brief and localized MVFR/IFR conditions could prevail near
the showers and storms. Light southwesterly to variable winds
tonight become light northwesterly on Sunday. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Our active summertime pattern continues through Sunday. Scattered
to locally numerous showers and storms this afternoon (mainly over
interior portions of the forecast area), gradually dissipating
this evening. Another round of showers and storms will likely
develop over the Gulf waters and along the coast late tonight into
early Sunday morning, with coverages then developing over inland
areas later in the day. Will be looking at good chance to low end
likely Pops (generally around 60 percent) on Sunday, so generally
very similar to today.

Upper ridging will be in place across our region through Sunday,
but slightly retreating back to the west, placing the local
forecast area under the eastern periphery of this ridge. This
results in a mostly light northeasterly to easterly flow pattern
aloft, and a few weak shortwave impulses look to pass overhead as
they move within this flow. These upper features, combined with
daytime heating and the typical summertime land/sea breeze
circulation will be the primary driving force for the showers and
storms.

Lows tonight will remain quite warm and muggy, with min temps
ranging from the low to mid 70s over interior counties to upper
70s and even a few lower 80s closer to the coast, with the 80s
being along the immediate coast. Another hot day on Sunday, likely
several degrees higher than today for most locations. This
combined with dew point temps in the mid to upper 70s for most
locations on Sunday will result in heat indices likely peaking in
the 108-110 degree range, at least for a period of time, for many
locations Sunday afternoon. As such, we have issued a Heat
Advisory for our entire forecast area for Sunday, from 10 AM - 7
PM CDT.

Had to increase the rip current risk along the Florida panhandle
beaches this afternoon to MODERATE and by tonight and especially
into Sunday, long period swell originating from Invest 94L as it
emerges into the Bay of Campeche, will reach our local beaches.
This will likely cause a quick uptick in rip currents, and
therefore a HIGH Risk of rip currents is now in effect from late
tonight into Sunday evening. DS/12

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Hot and humid.

An elongated ridge aloft begins to amplify early next week as it
builds east toward our region. A train of shortwaves cruise across
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest throughout the week and
eventually cause the ridge to flatten near the end of the week. A
weakening boundary at the surface remains draped across the region
as we head into early next week before eventually washing out. A
surface high generally remains in control of the weather as we
head through the remainder of the week. Ample deep layer moisture
remains over the region through the week and into next week.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each
afternoon through mid- week given the lingering boundary and ample
moisture overhead. Coverage becomes more scattered (typical
summertime coverage) as we roll into the 4th of July and beyond.

Summertime heat persists this week and into next weekend with
highs topping out in the 90s each day. Given the moisture over
the region, dewpoints will be juicy and thus the heat indices will
approach and potentially exceed Heat Advisory criteria each day.

Beach Note: MODERATE risk of rip currents persists through Monday
night before relaxing to a LOW risk through mid-week. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A mostly light southwesterly flow is expected tonight. For Sunday
into Monday, a light diurnal flow pattern is expected with
westerly to northwesterly flow developing each night and a
southwesterly flow developing each afternoon. By Tuesday, a light
southerly to southeasterly flow becomes established for the
remainder of the week. A few storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds and possibly waterspouts over the next few days will
pose the only brief hazards to small craft. DS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  76  95  76  92  76  91  75 /  70  30  60  20  60  20  60  10
Pensacola   94  77  93  78  90  79  90  77 /  70  50  70  30  60  30  60  10
Destin      92  79  92  80  90  79  90  79 /  70  50  70  30  60  30  50  20
Evergreen   95  74  95  72  93  73  92  72 /  70  30  50  10  50  10  60  10
Waynesboro  95  73  95  72  95  73  94  73 /  60  20  40  10  50  10  50  10
Camden      94  73  94  71  92  73  92  72 /  60  30  30  10  50  10  50  10
Crestview   96  74  96  75  94  74  94  73 /  70  40  60  20  70  20  60  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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