554
FXUS64 KMOB 241757
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1257 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions continue through most of the period. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible over interior
portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama later
tonight as a cold front moves into the area with additional
convective development expected Wednesday morning along portions
of south central Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle.
Local reductions will be possible in and around this activity.
MVFR to IFR conditions will also be possible across inland areas
around sunrise on Wednesday due to some patchy fog development.
/14



&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Current water vapor imagery reveals a digging longwave trough
over the central US with an upper ridge positioned over portions
of the Florida Panhandle and western Atlantic. The upper level
trough will continue to amplify through Wednesday as it sinks
southward over the Mississippi Valley and eventually breaks off
from the northern jet stream. Down in the lower levels, a surface
front is currently draped across northern Mississippi and
Louisiana and this feature will continue to move southeast and
approach the local area through the evening hours. At the same
time, a surface ridge which is currently positioned along the
northern Gulf coast weakens and begins to retreat from the area
tonight as the front approaches. Conditions will remain mostly dry
through the rest of the afternoon given this surface ridging and
the lack of substantial deep layer moisture. Better moisture will
begin to usher into these northwestern zones ahead of the surface
front tonight with PWATs rising to around 1.6 to 1.8 inches. This
moisture combined with the lingering surface boundary will result
in the development of isolated to scattered showers and storms
across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama late this
evening and into early Wednesday morning. Additional showers and
storms are expected to develop due to some peripheral response of
Tropical Storm Helene entering into the southern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday morning. This activity will likely develop over the
eastern Gulf Waters and gradually spread into the adjacent coastal
areas of northwest Florida and south central Alabama through
Wednesday morning. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the
upper 60s and lower 70s for interior portions of the region with
middle 70s at the beaches. /14



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  88  70  81  65  84  66  86 /  10  70  70  50  10   0   0  10
Pensacola   74  86  73  81  69  83  72  85 /  30  80  80  80  20   0   0  10
Destin      75  85  74  82  72  83  72  85 /  40  80  80  80  30   0   0  10
Evergreen   69  86  70  80  66  84  62  86 /  20  80  80  80  40  10   0  10
Waynesboro  69  86  67  80  63  83  61  86 /  30  60  50  50  20  10   0   0
Camden      68  86  68  78  65  80  62  83 /  20  80  70  70  40  10   0  10
Crestview   70  86  71  80  66  84  63  86 /  30  80  80  90  30  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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