Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
140 AWUS01 KWNH 162049 FFGMPD NCZ000-SCZ000-170247- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1025 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 448 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeast SC & eastern NC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 162047Z - 170247Z Summary...A deep layer cyclone will continue moving inland near the SC/NC border. Heavy rainfall within its comma head circulation and banding to its east will lead to flash flooding. Discussion...A deep layer cyclone, designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight by NHC earlier, continues to move inland across far northeast SC. ML CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg is being imported into southeast NC on its eastern flank, which has been driving a narrow line of convection pushing slowly up the coastal plain of NC. Precipitable water values are 1.75-2.25" in this region. Effective bulk shear remains 30-35 kts. There are a few foci for heavy rainfall from this system -- the stratiform heavy rain shield to its west-northwest, the heavy rain band moving up the NC coast, and the coastal front moving towards the Fall Line on its northeast side. Within the stratiform rain shield, 1-2" an hour totals and additional totals to 3" remain possible over the next several hours as the system moves west-northwest. Within the primary heavy rain band, hourly totals up to 4" and local totals to 8" remain possible as it drifts northeast. Near the coastal front in eastern NC, hourly rain totals to 2.5" and local totals to 5" remain possible as it moves farther inland. The biggest concern is if a new heavy rain band forms closer to Southport-Oak Island-Bolivia-Carolina Beach while the cyclone moves inland as radar estimates of rain so far in that area are close to 18". In many areas of central and eastern NC, along with far northeast SC, soils are saturating if not saturated, causing 3 hourly flash flood guidance to be increasingly low and easier to achieve. Flash flooding is considered likely. Roth ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36078040 35957828 35597658 35227581 35107569 34587650 34287709 33827775 33417879 34038004 34648089 35618162