650
AWUS01 KWNH 300031
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-300500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0515
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Areas affected...Far Southeast AL...Southwest GA...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300030Z - 300500Z

SUMMARY...Additional slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the next few hours. This coupled with very heavy
rainfall rates may foster a few more instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery continues to show some slow-moving
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms across areas of
southeast AL and southwest GA with some recent tendencies for the
activity to initiate a little bit farther south into the FL
Panhandle as well.

MLCAPE values remain on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg and the PWs
are very high with values of 2.2 to 2.4 inches based on the latest
GPS-derived data, and this is facilitating very high rainfall
rates that are locally on the order of 2 to 3 inches/hour.

The flow aloft is also rather diffluent given proximity of the
subtropical ridge axis just to the north, and this coupled with
the lingering early evening instability and relatively convergent
low-level flow should maintain the ongoing areas of convection for
a while longer. Some cell-merger activity has been occurring
locally, and this coupled with the slow cell-motions overall may
yield some additional rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches going
through midnight. This has been advertised by some of the recent
HRRR guidance and seems reasonable based on the latest satellite
and radar trends.

A few additional instances of flash flooding may occur given the
high rainfall rates and additional storm totals before the
convection weakens later this evening.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31608423 31538345 31198269 30668275 30458341
            30468435 30738525 31128541 31438499