Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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234 FXUS63 KMPX 250558 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1258 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions this evening with cooler and drier air returning tonight. - The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend, especially Sunday when widespread rain is likely across southern MN and western WI. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A cold front has pushed into western WI this afternoon, sparking scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Eau Claire to Ladysmith. Colder air is beginning to filter into western MN, accompanied by gusty winds and increasing stratocu. The gusty winds will continue through mid evening, and then as the low continues northward into southern Canada, winds will ease overnight. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s area wide. Hot on the heels of today`s system, the next one to watch will develop over eastern CO and western KS Saturday. A warm front will set up across central MN in the afternoon and a few showers may form along it. The compact low will progress northeast to IA Sunday morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will remain somewhat confined near the low center. Thus, rain totals and PoPs will be heavily dependent on the track of the low itself for Sunday. As one would expect, PoPs are highest across southern MN and western WI, but there remains a lot of spread among the ensemble guidance. At MSP, for example, QPF spread ranges from zero to 2.5 inches on the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM ensemble systems. The lighter totals are carrying the most weight in the ensemble mean, but it illustrates the sensitivity at hour 48 of the low track. That system heads out Sunday night and northwest flow takes hold for early next week. A couple disturbances embedded in the northwest flow will bring shower and thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will also fall to below normal with highs in the 60s Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build east to the eastern U.S. mid to late week and allow southeast low level flow to moderate temperatures back to near or above normal across the Upper Midwest. Another trough approaching from the northern Rockies may bring increasing chances for rain Thursday night and Friday, but any precip should be encountering a lot of dry air this far east with flow from the Gulf being cut off. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration for all sites. Cloud coverage will slowly increase from start to finish, starting as high cirrus clouds that will gradually develop into ceiling in the 080-120 levels late this afternoon into this evening. A few showers are possible in west-central MN late in this TAF period so have included its mention at AXN-STC, with chances increasing beyond this TAF period so the remainder of the TAF sites are dry with this issuance. Winds will generally run SW for much of today into tonight, eventually backing to SE during the early morning hours Sunday, with speeds under 10kts through daybreak, 10-15kts this afternoon, then settling back down tonight into Sunday. KMSP...No additional concerns. Low level dry air in place is expected to mitigate any precipitation potential for this evening through early morning Sunday, but chances will increase for rain during the day Sunday. This will be addressed in the upcoming TAF issuances. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind E to NE 10 kts. MON...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...JPC