Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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637 FXUS63 KMQT 191727 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 127 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Light rain showers and a couple rumbles of thunder are possible over the east half the rest of this afternoon. Some showers and a couple rumbles of thunder are possible over the south central tonight. -Keeping an eye on flooding concerns near Harvey along the Chocolay River and over the west due to the high recent rainfall amounts. -Potential heavy rain event this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Isolated to scattered light rain showers, with possibly a couple rumbles of thunder thrown in, look to continue over the eastern half of the U.P. this afternoon as the decaying cold front continues crawling eastwards. The precipitation looks to mostly conclude over our area by early this evening as weak high pressure ridging builds into Lake Superior. However, with a stationary front setting up over Wisconsin tonight, we could see some on-and-off rain showers and possibly a couple rumbles of thunder over the south central through tonight. Overall, temperatures today have been much cooler than what we saw yesterday, with many areas already having hit there high around 70 to the mid 70s today. Moving into tonight, low temperatures are expected to be cooler, mainly getting down into the 50s with some spots possibly getting into the upper 40s. We continue to keep an eye on flooding concerns along the Chocolay River near Harvey and also over the west where some places got rainfall in excess of 3 inches (some as much as 5 inches!). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Weak lower to midlevel ridging builds southward from Ontario for Thursday while a weak trough ripples through WI and the LP. With dry lower to midlevels apparent in soundings, a drier scenario will likely win out for Thursday - but still will allow for the possibility of a few showers and rumbles of thunder, mainly across the south-central UP. Thursday night, a shortwave begins to eject out of the Rockies, kicking off warm frontogenesis and our next chances for rain and thunderstorms as early as Friday morning. The front stalls out somewhere in our vicinity Friday, strengthening Friday evening into early this weekend as a surface low closes off and deepens, and a 30- 45kt LLJ becomes directed across the boundary. We could see some heavy rainfall out of this, as ensembles show PWATs near the max of modeled climatology (nearly 2"). With training very possible along the front given it`s slow movement northwards, we may need to keep an eye on flooding concerns across our area. Will note that ensembles are indicating a high chance (as high as 50-70% chance) for rain totals in excess of an inch across much of the area by Saturday evening, in particular across the western UP, where we`ve been able to pick up on quite a bit of rainfall over the past several days already. The low moves ENE through the area Saturday night, and we may be able to see a brief dry period overnight into early Sunday before another clipper drops through during the daytime Sunday. This will bring in another round of showers and storms to finish out the weekend. Moving into early next week, expect ridging and finally some drier weather as a high pressure moves from the Plains through the Midwest. This will give way to yet another potential for some wet weather by Tuesday as a shortwave moving through Ontario drags a cold front through the Great Lakes. Overall, expect temperatures to be near normal for the extended period, with some days showing below normal high temperatures (such as Thursday, Friday, and Sunday). Outside of the rain and storm chances throughout the next week, the only other thing worth mentioning is the possibility for localized river flooding along the Chocolay River near Harvey. With much of the basin having received between 2 to 3.5 inches of rainfall over the past 24+ hours, and the Observation Program Leader having gone out to the Chocolay near Yelden (around Skandia) and seeing the river already up to the bridge, there may be some isolated spots along the river near Harvey that could see some river flooding issues that are more typical to the Spring-time (water in basements, etc.) This situation will continue to be monitored by the staff here at WFO MQT, as well as the NCRFC while the water from the recent rainfall slowly exits the Chocolay River Basin into Lake Superior. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Conditions look to improve to VFR across all of the TAF sites by the mid afternoon, with cigs continuing to improve as we move into the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the gusty westerly winds this afternoon look to veer to the northwest this afternoon and the north this evening as they generally weaken with time today. Expect fairly light winds tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Winds remain fairly erratic early this morning with lingering convection as a cold front slowly moves through the area. That said, ahead of the front, winds should primarily be out of the south while veering to the SW then west behind it. Gusts to 20-25kts remain common across the lake, though higher gusts up to 25-30kts will be possible especially between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale this morning. Winds weaken to 20 knots or less again by the early evening as ridging builds in over Lake Superior behind the decaying cold front boundary. Winds stay light at until this weekend, when a Colorado Low followed by a Clipper system will see winds gusting to around 20kts Saturday and Sunday. Ridging into early next week will bring a return to quiet weather. The other mentionable hazard over Lake Superior for the next several days is thunderstorms. Thunderstorms continue to move across the central portions of the lake early this morning, finally moving out by the early afternoon. Then, chances for thunderstorms return Friday and continue through the weekend with our aforementioned systems moving through, though severe weather is not looking likely at this point. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...LC AVIATION...TAP MARINE...LC