Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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771 FXUS63 KMQT 262356 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 756 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool late June night tonight. -Pattern remains active, especially from late week into early next week, with yet more rounds of showers and storms && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level ridging over the Rockies and troffing over eastern Canada into the adjacent U.S., resulting in nw flow into the Great Lakes. Shortwave that was over southern Saskatchewan 24hrs ago is over northern Lower MI. Shra associated with this feature spread across Upper MI this morning, but diminished dramatically while doing so. Heaviest rainfall occurred over portions of the Keweenaw, CMX received 0.48 inches. Where sun dominated the morning, shra have developed in ne WI, and some of these -shra are affecting portions of southern Menominee County. In the wake of the shortwave, it has been a cool aftn with considerable low cloudiness across the w and n central. Clouds are slowly lifting and showing some signs of scattering out, but cloud cover extends across the lake into ne MN/and northern Ontario where cloud cover is taking on a decidedly more diurnal cellular look. Current temps range only from the low/mid 50s w and n to the upper 60s F s central where more sun has occurred today. Expect some thinning out of clouds for the rest of the aftn. Despite the more cellular look of the clouds upstream of the lake, the considerable coverage suggests that these clouds are not likely to completely dissipate tonight, leading to increased uncertainty in min temps. With center of high pres shifting se to northern MN/nw WI by sunrise, winds will become light to calm. Precipitable water also falls to 50-60pct of normal, aiding radiational cooling potential. Leaned toward the lower side of avbl guidance, which puts min temps down into the upper 30s F at traditional cold spots interior w. Given the cloud cover uncertainty and wet soils that dampen radiational cooling, seems highly unlikely that it would be even colder to support patchy frost development. If more cloudiness hangs on tonight, min temps will easily be at least 5 degrees higher. Otherwise, expect min temps tonight to range thru the 40s F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a ridge over the plains and a trough in the ern U.S. 12z Thu. Troughing moves into the northern Rockies 00z Fri and upper ridging into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri. Troughing moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat. Dry weather will continue into Thu night before pcpn overspreads the area on Fri into Fri night and lasts into Sat. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes region 12z Sun with a trough on the west coast and a ridge over the Rockies. The west coast trough moves into the Rockies 12z Mon with the ridge over the upper Great Lakes. This trough quickly moves into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Tue which then lingers into Wed. Temperatures will go from below normal on Sunday to near normal by Wednesday. Pcpn comes back in for Mon afternoon into Tue night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 756 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions have returned to all TAF sites and will remain there for the duration of the TAF period with the area under high pressure. Northerly winds will be in the 6 to 11 kt range. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Winds stay below 20 knots into Fri morning and switch to the south by then. A weakening low pressure tracking through the Upper Great Lakes early this weekend will allow for s-se gusts 20-25 kt Friday over mainly the east half ahead of the front and then nw gusts 20-25 kt behind the cold frontal passage on Saturday before building high pressure returns Sunday and ushers in lighter winds into Monday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...07