066
FXUS63 KMQT 281141
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
741 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rounds of showers are expected today into Saturday and then Monday
night into Tuesday with quiet weather following each round.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 502 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Latest water vapor imagery early this morning shows a couple of
upstream shortwaves, one over the eastern Dakotas and a second, a
closed low, over the southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan
border. Both these shortwave features will be impacting Upper Mi`s
weather over the next 24 hours.

WAA mid-high clouds are increasing early this morning ahead of the
incoming shortwave over the eastern Dakotas with scattered light
showers now moving into far western Upper Mi in the past hour. As
isentropic ascent and mid-level q-vector convergence increase ahead
of the shortwave and associated 50-60 kt LLJ poised to move across
the area. Expect showers to spread w to e into central and eastern
counties late this morning and early this afternoon, respectively.
Instability is pretty minimal with this initial surge of WAA so no
more than slight chances of thunder included in the fcst and
that`s mainly this afternoon into evening. As the 850 mb warm
front and LLJ lift northeast of the forecast late this afternoon
and evening and we lose the isentropic ascent forcing and model
soundings show a dry slot moving into western and central
portions of the fcst area tonight. The loss of isentropic ascent
and dry slot should provide mostly a break in the showers for
the west and north central areas. However for south central and
eastern counties, scattered showers and thunderstorms could
linger at least into the evening hours and perhaps overnight as
isentropic lift continues ahead of the approaching front.
Another batch of showers and possibly isolated storms could
arrive into far western UP late tonight with PVA ahead of the
advancing shortwave/closed low farther upstream over
Manitoba/Saskatchewan early this morning.

Overall, QPF through tonight shouldn`t be too crazy with generally
0.25 to 0.50 inch most places, although some higher amounts of 0.75
inch or greater could occur into northwest portions of the cwa
closer to the expected track of the Plains sfc low and also south
central and east where aforementioned WAA forcing will linger longer
tonight ahead of the approaching cold front.

Expect breezy conditions with the south winds increasing today as
the LLJ lifts across the area, especially for downsloping locations
along Lake Superior where gusts could reach 30-35 mph. With the
strengthening south winds, a Beach Hazard Statement was issued today
for southern Schoolcraft County where a high swim risk is expected
along Lake Michigan beaches from waves building to 4 to 6 feet late
afternoon and evening.

Expect highs today ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows
tonight ranging from the mid 50s west to mid 60s far south central.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Active weather pattern continues through the next week as an
amplified pattern aloft translates to multiple weather systems
passing through the region into early June. A few showers linger
behind a cold front Saturday followed by high pressure sweeping over
the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday, allowing for some nice summer
weather. The next round of precipitation looks to be late Monday
into Tuesday, but the surface low associated with those showers
looks to not be particularly strong and also displaced well to the
north, so impacts should be relatively low. Model spread increases
beyond then, but a continued warm and wet pattern is expected to
continue.

By Saturday morning, the cold front will be just about past the UP,
a significant increase in speed from model guidance from just 24
hours ago. As such, PoPs fall off behind the front, with only
scattered to isolated precipitation expected for the remainder of
Saturday. High pressure will follow behind for the remainder of the
weekend as a ~1025mb surface high will be over southern Minnesota by
Sunday afternoon and over the Michigan Lower Peninsula by Monday
afternoon. This will lead to a couple of nice sunny days, though
Sunday will definitely be the cooler day of the two as cool
northerly flow aloft will keep highs mainly in the 60s Sunday, but
winds becoming southerly Monday will allow highs to rebound to
seasonal 70s. With clear skies allowing for efficient radiational
cooling overnight, bias-corrected MOS guidance hints at the
potential for some interior locations to fall to the upper 30s
Sunday morning and Monday morning.

Precipitation chances begin to ramp up Monday evening into
Tuesday as the next trough exits the Rockies and a surface low
passes generally through northern Ontario. The GEFS has trended
stronger with this low pressure, with a mean low now in the 990s
mb, but the trend in the path has been even further north,
almost to the Hudson Bay. As even the southernmost cluster of
lows remains well north of the UP, dynamics should be fairly
weak over the UP, so hazardous weather seems unlikely at this
time. Following the passage of showers, another dry period is
expected Wednesday, but to what extent that dry weather lasts is
uncertain as ensemble spread increases significantly, though a
pattern change is still not expected as the CPC outlooks that
the first half of July is still more likely to be warmer and
wetter than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 734 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR starting at IWD by Fri
12Z as steady showers move in from the west ahead of a frontal
system. CMX and SAW will follow with MVFR conditions by early
afternoon. IFR will become predominant this evening at SAW with
occasional LIFR conditions possible. In addition, LLWS will be a
threat at IWD/CMX this morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

As a cold front approaches from the west, southerly wind gusts
increase to around 25 kt across the lake beginning this morning,
with some gusts to around 30 kt in the eastern nearshores of Lake
Superior as winds flow downslope onto the lake. As winds veer
westerly behind the front on Saturday, wind gusts across the lake
briefly fall below 20 kt Saturday morning, but mixing behind the
front allows for northwesterly wind gusts to 25-30 kt over the
eastern half of the lake. The return of high pressure will keep wind
gusts below 20 kt Saturday night through Monday night before the
next system passes through northern Ontario, increasing the wind
gusts to around and above 20 kt into Tuesday. As the system lifts
northeast and out of the region Tuesday night, winds fall mainly
below 20 kt through the rest of the forecast period.

Long-duration southerlies today will cause waves over the northern
portions of the lake to increase to 4-6 ft, with some waves to 7
feet along the US/Canada border. The northwesterlies behind the cold
front passage will cause 5-8 ft waves over the eastern half of the
lake Saturday night. Thunderstorms will also threaten the lake today.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...GS