976
FXUS64 KMRX 201133
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
733 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Key Messages:

1. Some fog around to start the period, especially near rivers and
lakes.

2.  Dry for the period, with high temperatures today around 5 to 10
degrees above normal.

Discussion:

We will remain on the eastern side of the upper ridge that is
centered to our southwest for the short term period.  We will start
with some patches/areas of fog early this morning especially in
river valleys and near lakes, then this will dissipate followed by
plenty of sunshine today with afternoon high temperatures around 5
to 10 degrees above seasonal normals.

Tonight will continue to be dry with low temperatures a bit above
normal. Some patchy fog may form again late, although right now it
looks likely to have less coverage than this early this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued well above normal temperatures (5 to 10F) through the
middle of next week.

2. Higher uncertainty for next week, but expect moderating
temperatures with gradual increase in rain chances.

Discussion:

Strong upper level ridge across the southern Plains will encourage
our warm and dry weather to persist through the weekend. A frontal
system to our north over the Midwest will bring low chances of light
showers Monday into Tuesday, primarily over the northern half of the
region. By midweek a more significant system is likely to push
through somewhere in the Eastern US, though whether or not we derive
greatest benefit is still uncertain. The bulk of the ensemble
guidance is closer to the Euro solution that grants us a taste of
fall behind a strong cold front but lacks decent accompanying
precipitation (odds of 1 inch of rain in the consensus is 0 to 20
percent). Meanwhile in the outlier camp, the 00z runs of the GFS and
CMC bring the upper trough further south, drawing more significant
moisture northwards and thus heavier rainfall, with different
scenarios of an inch (or more) of rainfall. Either scenario will
bring us cooler weather, whether it`s by rain and clouds or stronger
cold front passage. For now, PoPs remain fairly limited given the
consensus ensemble view, but a forecaster can hope for the outlier
wet solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Will start the period with some fog at TRI and possibly TYS, but
conditions will improve to VFR early. Right now conditions near
the end of the period look likely to be less conducive for fog
than this morning, but will still include a few hours of MVFR vsby
in fog at TRI toward sunrise. Outside of the fog, will have a VFR
forecast all sites for the period. Winds will generally be light.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  66  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  64  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  63  90  65 /  10   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  60  85  61 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....Wellington
AVIATION...