958
FXUS64 KMRX 011725
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
125 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A few minor adjustments this morning but overall forecast still
on track. Bumped up sky cover along the east TN mountains and
foothills for a few more hours as low-level moisture is pooled up
against the foothills. Clearing skies will occur over the next
few hours as drier air continues to push in from the north.
Otherwise, beautiful day across the area with lower RH and more
pleasant temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Cooler and drier air moving in for the period.

Discussion:

Cooler and drier air will be moving in today behind the cold front
as surface high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes
region slides southeast and builds into our area. We will see plenty
of sunshine today with lower humidity and high temperatures
generally near to several degrees below normal. Relative humidity
values will dip into the 30s in most locations this afternoon.
Low temperatures tonight will be below seasonal normals, along
with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry to mostly dry conditions through Wednesday, with increasing
chances of diurnal showers and storms Thursday into the weekend.

2. Hot conditions expected to continue through the week, humidity
returns late week.

Discussion:

The story of this summer continues with the strong 594 dm ridge
parked over the southeast for much of this week, shifting towards
the Atlantic Seaboard this weekend as a series of upper shortwaves
push down across the Northern US. Humidity takes a bit to fully
return to the area, with weak southerly flow gradually increasing
dewpoints from a manageable Tuesday to a more uncomfortable
Thursday. Looking at GFS and Euro ensemble probabilities of rain,
still think NBM is overdoing PoPs on Wednesday and likely again on
Thursday, so lowered percentages to reflect the global ensembles. A
subsidence inversion aloft will act to stymie any fledgling
updrafts, similar to conditions experienced already this summer
under similar circumstances.

As we go from Friday into the weekend, diurnal chances for showers
and thunderstorms look to improve, with upper level thermodynamics
and greater surface moisture more favorable for thunderstorm
development. The upper level trough and shortwaves over the northern
US look to push a frontal boundary down into the wider MidSouth
region, which may provide additional support for convective
development. With the approach of the front at the very end of the
period, it is not yet clear if the front will push through or if it
gets washed out around Tennessee. Heat indices each afternoon
Thursday through Saturday may flirt with heat advisory criteria in
the southern Tennessee valley, dependent in part on how strong
surface moisture becomes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Gusty
north winds at CHA will subside this evening but will return late
in the period. Lighter north winds expected at TYS and TRI, around 10kts
or less. TYS could see a brief gust up to 20kts during peak
heating this afternoon but not enough confidence to include in
forecast.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  91  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  64  91  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  90  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  88  62  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....Wellington
AVIATION...