682
FXUS65 KMSO 270759
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
159 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue early this morning as
the front moves through the region. Cooler temperatures and
unstable air behind the front today will result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the area, and gusty afternoon
winds. There is a high probability (>90%) of wind gusts reaching at
least 25 mph across most of the Northern Rockies this afternoon.

Radar projections now agree that precipitation will wrap around
the center of the low, bringing rain to the Continental
Divide/Glacier National Park and into the Northern Flathead Valley
from this afternoon through Friday morning.

Otherwise, Friday and Saturday will be pleasant, with
temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s and a mix of sun and clouds.

On Sunday and Monday, another short wave will pass through the
region, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
will remain relatively cooler, ranging from the 70s to lower 80s.

The rest of Independence week looks mostly dry, except for some
showers along the Continental Divide and far northwest Montana
near the Canadian border.

Models are increasingly consistent in showing a strong ridge
across the southwestern U.S. expanding northward into the Northern
Rockies. This scenario suggests that temperatures could climb
into the 90s for the first time this year in several places across
western Montana during the July 4th weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
overnight as a trough enters the region. HREF ceiling projections
indicate lowering ceilings and periods of obscured terrain as
shower coverage expands, lasting until around 27/1500Z. Afterward,
showers are expected to move east, followed by higher ceilings
and increasing westerly winds.

There is a high probability (>90%) of wind gusts reaching at
least 22 knots across most of the Northern Rockies this afternoon.
The NBM indicates many TAF sites, including GPI, MSO, BTM, and
SMN, have around a 50% chance of gusts reaching or exceeding 34
knots. Radar projections show that most of the showers and
thunderstorms from this afternoon through Friday morning will
concentrate in northwest Montana, particularly in the Glacier
Region.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$