844
FXUS65 KMSO 290842
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
242 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure will be the dominate
weather pattern over the Northern Rockies today, with temperatures
topping out in the low 80s in the valleys of western Montana, and
upper 80s to low 90s in north-central Idaho.

A trough of low pressure will re-introduce showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast for Sunday, with the highest
concentration of rainfall across northwest Montana. Currently,
there is a 35-40% probability for around 0.25" of rain
accumulating across northwest montana (north of I-90) and
Clearwater County in Idaho by Monday morning. The higher terrain
(above 5000), has around a 60% probability. For areas south of
I-90, those probabilities drop-off dramatically, though chances
for light rainfall are relatively high.

The Northern Rockies will remain under a somewhat active pattern
through at least mid-week next week, as the region will remain on
the western edge of a trough of low pressure. Temperatures will
remain somewhat seasonable with temperatures in the mid to upper
70s in western Montana and low 80s in north-central Idaho. The
Independence Day forecast continues to trend toward a more
seasonable temperatures, with isolated showers. But pretty quite
weather overall.

Long range ensemble members remain pretty split (50-50) on whether
the region remains under a northwesterly flow, or a ridge of high
pressure rebuilding over the area to end the week next week. Stay
Tuned!



&&

.AVIATION...A building ridge of high pressure will bring slightly
above normal temperatures to the region today. High clouds
streaming in from the southwest, will bring mostly cloudy
conditions to northwest Montana, north of I-90, and a mix of sun
and clouds to areas south. A trough of low pressure will re-
introduce showers and thunderstorms to the forecast for Sunday.
Northwest Montana will be the best location for more persistent
rainfall Sunday morning, with around a 40% probability for up to
0.25" of rainfall by the end of the day.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$