Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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402 FXUS66 KMTR 261125 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 425 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 121 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A cooling trend begins today with temperatures mostly at, or slightly below normal for this time of year. Thursday will see temperatures drop another few degrees for most locations, especially inland. A warmup looks likely for the beginning of next week, when a pattern change results in upper level ridging across our region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 121 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Low stratus has begun to edge farther inland, with further intrusion into the Salinas Valley in the Central Coast, East Bay, and the North Bay vallies of Petaluma, Sonoma and Napa. Some patchy fog can be expected near the coast in southern Santa Cruz county early this morning as well. The low clouds will persist through late this morning/early afternoon. Breezy winds can be expected this afternoon as a trough axis approaches from the west. Today is the beginning of a pleasant cool down with temperatures mostly at or slightly below normal. Thursday will see temperatures drop a few more degrees, especially further inland as the trough axis shifts east across our area, with decreasing H50 heights and thicknesses. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 121 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Temperatures at or slightly below normal will persist through the end of the work week into the weekend. A low amplitude progressive ridge will be overhead on Friday with little impact on temperatures. A sharpening trough moving onshore will keep high temperatures similar Saturday and Sunday. Once the aforementioned trough shifts east of our area Sunday night, a ridging pattern will set in for the beginning of next week. Inland temperatures will jump 5-10 degrees from Sunday to Monday, with the warmer temperatures expected to persist through the remainder of the extended forecast and beyond. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 422 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Currently LIFR at MRY and STS, IFR at OAK, SFO, and SNS, and VFR at APC, LVK, and SJC. Widespread VFR will prevail by this afternoon. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. MRY, OAK, SFO, and SNS are expected to experience similar conditions overnight although slightly improved as a trough moves through the region and deepens the marine layer. Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR with westerly flow. Winds will prevail out of the west through the TAF period. VFR will prevail by late morning with moderate confidence on a low-end MVFR ceiling returning to the terminal early tomorrow morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with westerly flow at MRY and IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Winds will prevail out of the west through the TAF period. The terminals will briefly improve to VFR late this morning/early this afternoon. Low clouds are expected to linger through the TAF period with moderate confidence on both terminals getting some form of a low-end MVFR/IFR ceiling again tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 422 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Building surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will move east, tightening the pressure gradient and thus increasing the winds. Strong northwesterly breezes with gusts approaching gale force will prevail for most of the period. Wind is the main driver for the Small Craft Advisories as significant wave heights generally remain below 10 feet through the period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea