709
FXUS63 KOAX 030436
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and evening across portions of southeast Nebraska
  and southwest Iowa. The primary hazard will be damaging winds,
  though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Additional rounds of thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
  night through Thursday evening.

- A third system will bring another potential round of rain and
  thunderstorms to the region this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The cold front is currently draped across the southeastern
portions of our forecast area, with far southeast Iowa the only
area left in the warm sector ahead of the front. This is the
best area to see some severe weather this afternoon. Shear and
instability behind the front could support a stronger updraft or
two behind the front as well, but it will be much harder. Skies
will be clearing as showers move out of the area this evening
with high pressure sliding across the area overnight. This will
lead to winds becoming nearly calm leading to nearly ideal
conditions for fog development overnight. Best area for fog
development will likely be along and east of the Missouri River.

Fog should clear by mid-morning on Wednesday leading to a fairly
nice summer day with partly cloudy skies and highs in the
mid-80s. We`re watching Wednesday night into Thursday morning as
an upper-level trough swings through bringing another MCS across
our area with potential for additional severe weather. Storms
will develop again out over the Nebraska Panhandle and morph
into a line of storms by the time they reach central Nebraska.
This line of storms will continue east, with some question how
long it will hold together before it weakens as it moves into a
more stable environment across eastern Nebraska into western
Iowa. We could still see some potential for damaging winds and
large hail, though, with the highest risk for our western
counties.

During the day on Thursday, for the Fourth of July holiday, the
base of the upper-level trough swings through transitioning our
upper-level flow pattern from southwesterly to a slightly tamer
northwesterly flow regime. This will continue shower and storm
potential through the day, though heavier rain will fall to our
north across eastern South Dakota into northwest Iowa and
southwest Minnesota. We could potentially see significant
rainfall in this area to the north which may reinvigorate the
flooding along the Missouri River going into next weekend and
beyond so we will want to watch this closely. Though rain may
dampen spirits on the holiday, I don`t think it will be a
complete washout. Precip chances will be decreasing through the
afternoon into the evening, and many areas may clear out just in
time for evening fireworks displays.

Friday and Saturday are looking dry after the pattern shift.
Friday will be very mild with high temperatures only in the
upper 70s, and a bit warmer on Saturday with highs in the low-
to-mid 80s. Our next chance of rain looks to be with our first
MCS of the northwesterly flow regime Saturday night into early
Sunday, so we`ll want to monitor this period for potential
severe weather and heavy rainfall. Low shower chances continue
through the day on Sunday. This type of pattern lends to
uncertainty farther out in the forecast and generally doesn`t
pick up on subtler shortwaves, so we could potentially see
another MCS early next week, but right now models keep the
forecast dry on Monday. Trends show a warmer pattern for next
week with potential for overnight MCS`s as the stationary ridge
to our west remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Light winds, mostly clear skies, and residual moisture will
favor fog development tonight, especially at LNK and OMA.
However, confidence in density and how widespread it becomes is
on the lower side as guidance has trended toward less coverage
and continues to bring in some mid to high level clouds. At OFK,
thinking winds aloft will stay too strong for widespread
development, though can`t completely rule out reductions there.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with light
westerly/southwesterly winds overnight becoming southeasterly
Wednesday afternoon. A few hints at some light showers in
southeast Nebraska around 17Z to 21Z, but not much should hit
the ground and consensus keeps them south of the TAF sites.
Additional storms may move in toward the very end of the period,
but exact timing and coverage remain in question.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA