650
FXUS63 KOAX 262243
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
543 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate flooding is ongoing or expected to begin along the
  Missouri River the next day or two. It`s forecast to last into
  next week for Omaha and points south.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday night into
  Friday and again Friday afternoon into Friday night. These
  could produce heavy rain and localized flash flooding in
  addition to hail and damaging winds.

- Quiet and cooler for the weekend, with highs in the mid 70s to
  mid 80s. Then warming back up and becoming more active for
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Pretty quiet across the region early this afternoon with surface
high pressure off to the north helping to keep us clear and dry.
Also notably "cooler" today, though temperatures were still pretty
summer-like, with readings as of 3 PM mostly in the lower to mid
80s.

The dry weather won`t last long though, as some shortwave energy
currently beginning to rounding a ridge centered over the
Rockies will push into the area early Thursday morning, bringing
at least some scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated
storms (though instability will be lacking). That precip and
cloud cover will linger through much of the day and keep us even
cooler, with some locations even failing to crack 80 degrees.
Probably a welcome change for most, but you might need to dodge
some showers if you want to be outside. Attention then turns to
warm front and narrow plume of instability approaching from the
west Thursday night into early Friday. Guidance is in pretty
good agreement that the instability will largely remain to our
west and deep layer shear will remain relatively weak, but still
could see a few stronger storms move into our area. Anything
that does move in could produce locally heavy rain/flooding, as
guidance suggests precipitable water values of 2-2.25 inches and
warm cloud depths near 4.5 km. If we were somehow able to get a
little more instability into our area, the flash flooding
threat would increase even more.

We could have another opportunity for strong to severe storms on
Friday as well as a surface low pushes through the Dakotas and drags
a cold front through the area. However, the risk will largely depend
on how much instability we`re able to build, with some signs that
precip from Friday morning could linger through much of the day. If
we`re able to build instability, deep layer shear in vicinity of the
front looks sufficient for organized severe storms and once again
the environment would be conducive to efficient rain producers,
yielding another flash flooding threat. The potential for lingering
precip will also play a large role in temperatures. While we`ll be
firmly in the warm sector behind the warm front, the clouds and
precip should limit temperatures to the mid 80s to lower 90s (though
still very humid). However, if we see a few breaks in the clouds we
could see some mid 90s in there and with the humidity in place, some
places could see triple digit heat index values. Overall, confidence
is on the lower side on how all of Friday will pan out.

Surface high pressure behind the cold front and upper level ridging
approaching from the west should lead to a mostly quiet weekend with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. There are some signs of some weak
shortwave energy being present in the ridge as it pushes in late
Sunday, which could lead to some more showers and storms, though a
bulk of the weekend should be pretty nice...though maybe a touch
breezy at times if we`re being picky (20-25 mph gusts).

Heading into next week, the active pattern looks to return as broad
troughing to zonal flow sets up over the western and central CONUS
and bits of shortwave energy slide through. Still lots of details to
work out regarding exact timing and strength of any system, but the
overall pattern favors a return to warm weather with almost daily
storm chances.

Last, but certainly not least, the active pattern is definitely
worth monitoring when it comes to ongoing flooding along the
Missouri River basin. While it would take a very large amount of
rain to significantly alter any current forecasts, the repeated
rounds of rain could lead to river levels remaining elevated for
slightly longer than currently forecast. Also for what it`s worth,
the overall trend in guidance through Friday night is to keep the
heaviest rainfall just to our south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions through the period. There will be some showers
that move into the KOFK TAF by 10z and beyond, and at KOMA/KLNK
by 14-16z. Light northeasterly winds 7 knots or less at TAF
issuance, but becoming southeast 9-12 knots by 16z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...DeWald