548
FXUS63 KOAX 290804
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
304 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate flooding will continue along the Missouri River into
  next week for Omaha and points south.

- Quiet and cooler for the weekend, with highs in the mid 70s to
  lower 80s.

- A warmer, more active weather pattern is forecast next week
  with the potential for severe weather and additional flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.Today and Sunday:

Widely scattered light showers are ongoing as of 3 AM across
portions of northeast NE, and latest CAM data suggest that
activity could persist through 7 or 8 AM before dissipating.
Otherwise, clouds will diminish this morning as a prominent
surface high begins to build into the region from the northwest.
The high pressure system, which is strong by early summer
standards, will contribute to cooler, drier conditions this
weekend. Highs today will be in the mid 70s to low 80s today,
and mid to upper 70s on Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.


.Sunday night through Tuesday night:

A mid-level trough over the Pacific NW and northern
Intermountain region late this weekend is forecast to expand
into the north-central U.S. by Tuesday, due in part to a series
of perturbations ejecting east from the parent system. The first
minor disturbance will move through the northern Plains Sunday
night ahead of a stronger secondary system moving through the
same area Monday afternoon and evening. A third, more intense
disturbance is forecast to traverse the northern Plains and mid
MO Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a warm front extending
from a surface low over western SD into central KS Monday
morning will develop east through our area Monday afternoon into
Monday night ahead of a cool front that will slowly settle
south through the area on Monday night into Tuesday night.

An unseasonably moist air mass will be advected into the region
beginning late Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday by a
strengthening low-level jet. In fact, the 28/12z NAEFS
indicates 99th percentile to maximum values in mixing ratio,
precipitable water, and integrated moisture transport for the
model climate for this time of year. That moisture will fuel
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms during this time
period with the potential for severe weather and additional
flooding.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday night with
precipitation likely continuing into Monday morning at some
locations. The early-day rain could slow/limit the
destabilization process in the vicinity of the warm front
moving into the area on Monday afternoon. However, vertical
shear will be seasonably strong, and only a sufficient amount
of instability will be necessary to support severe storms
capable of all hazards Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Another round of severe storms appears possible Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night as the cool front advances south
through the area. In addition, heavy rainfall capable of flash
flooding will be possible from Monday night into Tuesday night.
Runoff from the rainfall could prolong the river flooding in
some areas.

Highs on Monday are forecast to range from 70s east of the warm
front to 80s west of it. Readings on Tuesday are expected to be
in the 80s to potentially mid 90s near the KS border.


.Wednesday through Friday:

By Wednesday, the 29/00z global models suggest that the front
will stall across KS and MO before lifting back north on
Thursday ahead of a vigorous mid-level trough moving into the
northern Plains and mid MO Valley. Needless to say,
precipitation chances will continue, as will the potential for
heavy rainfall and some severe weather.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Light northerly winds at TAF
issuance, but increasing to 15-25 knots 11-02z. There could also
be a thunderstorms at KOFK 08-11z, but believe other locations
will probably stay dry.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...DeWald