186
FXUS64 KOHX 290119
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
819 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 808 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Muggy conditions through tonight will lead to a very hot and humid
Saturday. Lows tonight will fall only into the 70s with highs
Saturday mostly lower to mid 90s. A Heat Advisory will remain in
effect for Saturday for much of the area west of the Plateau.

There were 2 or 3 tiny showers in Middle TN this evening, but
they have faded with sunset. Another little shower or 2 could
bubble up in the moist air overnight with slightly convergent
southerly winds, but coverage / probability of rain will be less
than 5 percent. Coverage of showers and storms will increase
tomorrow mainly for the Plateau. Area-wide coverage will be better
Saturday night and Sunday as a front approaches.

No major forecast changes are needed at this time. Keep heat
safety in mind with an emphasis on hydration and limited heat and
sun exposure when possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The heat is definitely on in Middle Tennessee. High pressure is
now situated to our east, so we`re picking up some return
southerly flow that is sending our temperatures soaring while also
slowly increasing our dew points. Tomorrow will be even more
oppressive as a surface boundary closes in on Middle Tennessee
from the northwest. We expect enough additional humidity tomorrow
that we are going to issue a Heat Advisory for most of Middle
Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau for tomorrow. In
addition, we expect scattered convection to develop in the pre-
frontal environment. While this may provide some temporary relief
in some locations, we still expect many locations to reach a heat
index of 105F+. It is worth noting that the SPC`s day 2 outlook
does include a tiny sliver of a marginal risk across our northern
counties, but out risk of severe storms on Saturday minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Our chance for convection will peak on Saturday night and Sunday
with the expected passage of the aforementioned surface boundary.
So we will dry out by Sunday evening and we`ll also enjoy a sunny
and much cooler Monday, but the heat will start to build back in
by Tuesday, with above-normal warmth expected to persist the
remainder of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle with light winds
shifting from the south to the southwest tomorrow. TS
probabilities Saturday afternoon scattered enough to preclude any
prevailing lines at this time. May include in future issuances for
CSV/SRB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      77  97  77  92 /   0  20  40  60
Clarksville    75  95  75  88 /   0  20  40  40
Crossville     70  87  69  87 /  10  60  60  80
Columbia       74  96  75  92 /   0  20  40  70
Cookeville     73  89  72  87 /  10  40  50  70
Jamestown      71  88  71  86 /  10  50  60  70
Lawrenceburg   74  94  74  91 /   0  30  40  70
Murfreesboro   75  95  75  92 /  10  30  40  70
Waverly        74  95  74  88 /   0  20  40  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Unger