845
FXUS64 KOHX 261118
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
618 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

An area of showers and thunderstorms is slowly moving out of
central MS River Valley Region as these early morning hours have
progressed and should begin to move into northwestern portions of
our area here shortly. Recent CAMs not doing a great job of
initializing this, as CAMs continue to show, along with North
American. and Global Models differences in general movement and
timing through at least remaining morning hours today. Better
agreement in weather pattern evolution noted between these three
model tiers as afternoon hours progress with a more pronounced
upper level trough passage expected. Depending on what model tier
and particular model you prefer, some forecast model soundings and
derived indicies show just regular summertime showers and
thunderstorms while others, like the NAMNest show at least
potential of a few strong to severe thunderstorms with PW values
approaching 1.9 inches, respectable CAPE values for robust
convective development 1,500 J/KG, mid level lapse rates in 6-7
C/km range, Total Total Values at least approaching 50, DCAPE
values around 1,100 J/KG, but atmospheric shear values only in
20-30 m2/s2 range. So if any strong to severe thunderstorms due
occur, strong to damaging microburst winds and brief heavy
rainfall. Latest Day 1 SPC convective outlook continues to keep
mid state within a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for this
afternoon into early evening hours tonight eastern portions.
Temperatures this afternoon will not be as hot as those
experienced yesterday, with upper 80s northwest to mid 90s south.
With increased low level moisture, some locations west of
Cumberland Plateau Region that are expected to reach into low to
mid 90s, could also experience heat index values up to around 105
degrees.

Look for best coverage of showers and thunderstorms to shift
across eastern portions of our area through evening hours tonight
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
after midnight tonight entire area and across southern and eastern
portions of our area as Thursday progresses as upper level
troughing shifts eastward tonight and upper level ridging
influences slowly build in on Thursday with some lingering
moisture possibly across southern and eastern areas dependent
on actual cold frontal passage movement. Surface front should
move slowly through our area as tonight progresses bringing, after
lows tonight mainly upper 60s to lower 70s, more seasonal normal
temperatures across our area on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Upper level ridging influences on Thursday night will give way to
a more zonal pattern aloft on Friday which might usher a few weak
upper level disturbances within its flow across our area resulting
in potentially isolated showers and thunderstorms southern and
eastern portions. With surface high pressure influences shifting
eastward, a warming trend will commence, with a good amount of
locations potentially west of Cumberland PLateu Region having
afternoon heat index values up to around 105 degrees as highs will
generally once again be in low to mid 90s. Best day for potential
of a heat advisory for locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region
continues to be on Saturday with prevalent mid to upper 90s highs
and heat index values well within the 105 up to around 110 degree
range for locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region as shower
and thunderstorm chances return to our area with best potential
on Sunday afternoon as upper level troughing influences move
across our area. Another cold frontal passage will result in once
more seasonal temperatures by next Monday. Upper level ridging
influences will once again build in from the west as Monday into
Tuesday progress with highs back in low to mid 90s by Tuesday
afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible with
heat index values west of Cumberland Plateau Region back in the
100 to 105 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mostly VFR condition expected today, however, with TS expected
this afternoon and evening, look for lowered cigs and vis for
periods of time. I have to continue with VCTS because of low
confidence timing on storms today. CKV will continue to deal with
lowered vis in this light rain for a few more hours.

Winds will be relatively light, shifting to the northwest late in
the period behind a fropa.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  72  90  70 /  60  60  10   0
Clarksville    88  69  88  66 /  70  60  10   0
Crossville     91  65  84  64 /  60  70  40   0
Columbia       95  70  90  68 /  60  60  10   0
Cookeville     91  68  85  66 /  60  70  20   0
Jamestown      91  66  83  64 /  60  70  30   0
Lawrenceburg   94  69  88  68 /  60  60  20   0
Murfreesboro   96  70  90  69 /  60  60  20   0
Waverly        90  68  88  67 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Unger