Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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695 FXUS64 KOHX 300530 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 824 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Today`s heat advisories have expired as of 8 PM CDT, but it remains quite hot and humid with early evening heat index values still in the 90s. Very muggy conditions will continue through the night with lows once again only dropping to the mid to upper 70s. Only a couple of tiny showers were noted on radar, but coverage will increase later tonight as a front approaches form the northwest. No severe storms are expected, but local downpours will accompany any boomers. As the front moves southeastward across the area Sunday, the greatest coverage of showers and storms will focus over the southeast half of our area with a few strong storms possible. The hottest temps will be focused ahead of the front, south of I-40. Even though northern areas will not be under a heat advisory Sunday, we will not feel much relief from the frontal passage until Monday when substantially drier air will move in. Sadly, it will here only one day then the icky conditions will return for the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 We are in for another hot day across Middle TN. Current temperatures across the area are similar to a few degrees warmer than yesterday this time and overall highs will be similar to yesterday. The big difference will be the higher dew points, they are running a few degrees higher than yesterday and we won`t see them mix out much this afternoon. This is going to lead to heat index values 105 to 110 during the afternoon and early evening. Upper level trough and surface low are working through the Great Lakes dropping a cold front south. This cold front will be the main focus for thunderstorms and should remain to our north today but will start to push south later this evening into tomorrow. Can`t rule out some pop up t-storms this afternoon but very poor lapse rates between 850-500 mb will really limit our chances. Scattered storms along the cold front to our north will start to push south into our area after 10 pm tonight and will continue to work south during the overnight likely becoming less widespread. Soundings continue to show poor lapse rates overnight along with low shear, this will keep the threat for strong storms low but still can`t rule out heavy rain and isolated gusty winds. The front will be working south through our area on Sunday. This will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. The best chances will be for areas south of I-40 and east of I-65 during the afternoon. Lapse rates look slightly better tomorrow compared to today but still don`t look great and we do see some dry air above 500 mb but shear still remain lows. Overall with this in mind the threat for strong storms is low but some may produce gusty winds 40-60 mph along with heavy rain. The thunderstorm threat is expected to diminish by 7 pm. Highs will be a bit cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Cooler drier air will be working in behind the front on Monday and that is going to bring great weather. We will see highs in the 80s and dew points as low as the mid 50s! Unfortunately the cooler more comfortable weather will not last as upper level ridging builds over the region and we see highs push back into the 90s. This will bring the return of hot weather lasting through the week. By mid-week the high will be just to our east with a low to the north over Canada, this is going to give us direct flow off the Gulf and push our dew points into the mid to upper 70s. This means heat index values above 100 including for the 4th of July Holiday. Starting Tuesday night we will also see very warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s, this will bring little to no relief to those without air conditioning. Forcing will be weak during the week but with the high dew points popup afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible each day staring Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 For the most part VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A cold front is trying to work its way through the mid south and Tennessee overnight and into the day on Sunday. It is summertime and cold fronts tend to loose umph this time of year. Some TS may be possible this morning/afternoon with this front. Confidence is not all that great so indicated the best time with P6SM -SHRA/VCTS. Wanted to try and give the best indication for time as 06Z TAFs tend to be utilized for planning purposed for the day. The only way conditions won/t stay VFR at a TAF site is if a thunderstorms passes directly over a terminal. In this case the storms should move in such that they won/t be long lived. Winds will be NW and swing around to N with the weak frontal passage. High resolution models are indicating some gusty winds after sunset /after 01/00Z/. Haven/t gone as gusty as models indicate. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 64 85 63 / 60 0 0 0 Clarksville 88 60 82 60 / 40 0 0 0 Crossville 86 56 79 57 / 80 10 0 0 Columbia 93 62 84 60 / 70 10 0 0 Cookeville 87 58 79 59 / 70 10 0 0 Jamestown 85 57 78 57 / 70 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 92 61 83 59 / 70 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 93 62 84 60 / 70 10 0 0 Waverly 89 61 81 61 / 40 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-Coffee-Giles-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall- Maury-Perry-Rutherford-Wayne-Williamson. && $$ UPDATE.......13 SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....12