Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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240 FXUS64 KOHX 290555 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 808 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Muggy conditions through tonight will lead to a very hot and humid Saturday. Lows tonight will fall only into the 70s with highs Saturday mostly lower to mid 90s. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect for Saturday for much of the area west of the Plateau. There were 2 or 3 tiny showers in Middle TN this evening, but they have faded with sunset. Another little shower or 2 could bubble up in the moist air overnight with slightly convergent southerly winds, but coverage / probability of rain will be less than 5 percent. Coverage of showers and storms will increase tomorrow mainly for the Plateau. Area-wide coverage will be better Saturday night and Sunday as a front approaches. No major forecast changes are needed at this time. Keep heat safety in mind with an emphasis on hydration and limited heat and sun exposure when possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The heat is definitely on in Middle Tennessee. High pressure is now situated to our east, so we`re picking up some return southerly flow that is sending our temperatures soaring while also slowly increasing our dew points. Tomorrow will be even more oppressive as a surface boundary closes in on Middle Tennessee from the northwest. We expect enough additional humidity tomorrow that we are going to issue a Heat Advisory for most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau for tomorrow. In addition, we expect scattered convection to develop in the pre- frontal environment. While this may provide some temporary relief in some locations, we still expect many locations to reach a heat index of 105F+. It is worth noting that the SPC`s day 2 outlook does include a tiny sliver of a marginal risk across our northern counties, but out risk of severe storms on Saturday minimal. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Our chance for convection will peak on Saturday night and Sunday with the expected passage of the aforementioned surface boundary. So we will dry out by Sunday evening and we`ll also enjoy a sunny and much cooler Monday, but the heat will start to build back in by Tuesday, with above-normal warmth expected to persist the remainder of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected at airports most of this TAF period with some low clouds along with considerable high clouds. Low chance for MVFR conditions due to TSRA at CSV/SRB Saturday afternoon, but appears other airports will remain dry. Light south to southeast winds early in the TAF period will veer to southwest during the day on Saturday but remain between 5-10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 96 78 92 66 / 20 30 30 0 Clarksville 95 75 88 62 / 10 40 40 0 Crossville 87 70 87 60 / 60 30 20 10 Columbia 96 75 93 64 / 20 20 20 0 Cookeville 89 73 88 62 / 40 30 30 0 Jamestown 88 72 86 60 / 50 30 30 10 Lawrenceburg 94 74 92 64 / 20 20 20 0 Murfreesboro 96 75 93 64 / 30 20 20 0 Waverly 95 75 88 63 / 10 30 30 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman- Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery- Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne- Williamson-Wilson. && $$ UPDATE.......13 SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Shamburger