Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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444 FXUS64 KOHX 261709 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 An upstream shortwave is poised to move through the area tonight. PVA in advance of this feature is expected to work into the area beginning later this afternoon. This will serve to act upon an increasing area of instability and hence, we will see thunderstorm development by late this afternoon. We are in a marginal risk for severe with the primary threat being straight line damaging wind potential. 850 mb wind speeds are only around 15-20 kts so vertical storm height/structure will need to be sufficient enough so as to reach strong to severe levels. Quite a bit of cloud cover in place now so additional cape increase may be somewhat mitigated. That said, we do see some current values approaching 2000 j/kg in our east. Moving on, a fair deal of moisture will reside into Thursday morning. We could still see some lingering showers/a few tstms into the morning hours. Otherwise, heights will be on the increase with an upper high developing across TX. Westerlies will shift north leaving a large zone of ridging across the mid and deep south. This will equate to a marked decrease in pop values with just minimal inclusion for Thursday night through Friday night. For the near term temps, the shortwave will be bringing a welcomed break through Thursday with highs holding in the 80s. This wont last long though as the aforementioned height increase takes over and sends us back int the 90s on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 In the extended forecast, the upper high over TX will bring the heat but it looks as though it will remain to our southwest. This will allow a weak but entrenched west northwesterly ul flow to prevail. We might get a boundary through here on Saturday night which will bring another round of shower and tstm chances with it. Tough to get boundaries though the area this time of year. However, the Euro and GFS solutions are both on board with brining the boundary through. Plenty of instability will welcome the boundary so keep an eye for Saturday. No outlook as of yet but that may change. Moving on, dry weather returns with the surface high to our north in control. Meanwhile, the upper ridging looks poised to take over our weather pattern by mid week. Thus, hot and dry weather to set up. Those extended temperatures will feature a noticeable variability. Saturday, ahead of the boundary, it will be quite hot and in the 90s for most areas. Sunday and Monday will contain a 10 degree cooldown with that surface high to our north being in control. Then, back up into the 90s again with the upper ridge returning. As for the tropics? the Atlantic looks clean for the most part. There are a couple of disturbances just north of the itcz with only low probabilities of reaching tropical organization levels. The 6 to 14 day outlook calls for above normal temps and below normal precip. Looks like more hot weather is on the way. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Mostly VFR condition expected today, however, with TS expected this afternoon and evening, look for lowered cigs and vis for periods of time. I have to continue with VCTS because of low confidence timing on storms today. CKV will continue to deal with lowered vis in this light rain for a few more hours. Winds will be relatively light, shifting to the northwest late in the period behind a fropa. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 72 89 71 94 / 80 20 0 20 Clarksville 70 88 67 92 / 70 10 0 10 Crossville 65 83 65 87 / 60 40 10 30 Columbia 70 88 68 93 / 60 30 0 20 Cookeville 68 84 67 89 / 70 30 10 20 Jamestown 66 83 66 89 / 80 30 10 30 Lawrenceburg 69 87 68 92 / 70 30 10 20 Murfreesboro 71 89 68 94 / 70 20 10 20 Waverly 69 87 67 92 / 70 10 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Unger