821
FXUS64 KOHX 301141
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
641 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Radar this morning shows widely scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms popping up along and north of I-40. This activity is
occurring ahead of a cold front currently across the Midwest that
will sink southward later today and tonight. A very humid airmass
is in place across the midstate this morning with dewpoints in
the 70s to near 80, so anticipating additional scattered showers
and storms to bubble up through the morning mainly over our
northern half. By midday into the afternoon, more widespread
showers and storms are expected to develop along and south of
I-40 per the HRRR model, before all activity moves south of the
area this evening thanks to the incoming front. Forecast
soundings show MLCAPE values peaking near 2000 J/Kg in our south
this afternoon with very high PWAT values well over 2 inches.
Therefore, even though we are not outlooked by SPC, some of the
storms this afternoon could get strong with damaging wet
microburst winds possible.

Precipitation and associated cloud cover today will keep
temperatures down considerably from yesterday with highs only in
the 80s to low 90s. Subsequently, heat index values look to stay
well below our widespread 105+ criteria except perhaps in our
southwest counties - so I`ve trimmed the north and east sides of
the Heat Advisory accordingly in coordination with MEG and HUN.
Regardless, will still be hot and very humid throughout Middle
Tennessee today. Much drier and cooler air will filter into the
region tonight with dewpoints falling into the 50s, so
temperatures will see a dramatic change from the past few nights
with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Monday and Monday night both look fantastic thanks to the cool
and dry airmass arriving from the north, with temperatures running
well below normal for the first part of July. Highs are only
expected to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday, with lows
once again dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s. Unfortunately
this brief cooldown will be shortlived as an H5 ridge centered
over the Arklatex builds eastward into the Tennessee Valley, with
the heat and a gradual return of deeper low level moisture
arriving for Tuesday. Highs will be 5-10 degrees above Monday`s
readings in the mid 80s to mid 90s, with lows Tuesday night in the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

The upper ridge will remain in place for Wednesday before shifting
south of the state the rest of the week as the upper level jet
stream sinks southward into the Midwest. This pattern will favor
continued heat and humidity through the extended forecast but not
as hot as we have seen the past couple of weeks, with highs
generally in the low to mid 90s. There will also be a notable
increase in rain chances, with chance to likely pops from
Thursday through Saturday. By Sunday, another weak cold front is
currently indicated by 00Z guidance to move through the region,
which should lower or briefly stop our rain chances towards the
end of the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Not many changes in thinking from the 06Z TAF.  For the most part
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A cold front is
working its way through the mid south and Tennessee. It is
summertime and cold fronts tend to loose umph this time of year.
Some TS continue to be possible this morning and into the early
afternoon with this front. Confidence is not all that great in the
storms lasting too long in one place so indicated the best time
with P6SM -SHRA/VCTS. The only way conditions won/t stay VFR at a
TAF site is if a thunderstorms passes directly over a terminal.
In this case the storms should move in such that they won/t be
long lived.

Winds will be W/NW and swing around to N with the weak frontal
passage. High resolution models are still indicating some gusty
winds after sunset /after 01/00Z/. Have included gusts up to 20kts
after 22Z for BNA/MQY/CKV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  64  86  64 /  60  10   0   0
Clarksville    88  61  83  60 /  50   0   0   0
Crossville     87  57  80  57 /  70  20   0   0
Columbia       92  63  84  60 /  70  10   0   0
Cookeville     87  59  79  59 /  70  30   0   0
Jamestown      85  57  78  57 /  70  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   92  62  84  60 /  70  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   92  62  85  60 /  70  10   0   0
Waverly        89  62  82  61 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Bedford-Giles-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Wayne.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....12