611
FXUS64 KOHX 291721
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

We are in for another hot day across Middle TN. Current
temperatures across the area are similar to a few degrees warmer
than yesterday this time and overall highs will be similar to
yesterday. The big difference will be the higher dew points, they
are running a few degrees higher than yesterday and we won`t see
them mix out much this afternoon. This is going to lead to heat
index values 105 to 110 during the afternoon and early evening.

Upper level trough and surface low are working through the Great
Lakes dropping a cold front south. This cold front will be the
main focus for thunderstorms and should remain to our north today
but will start to push south later this evening into tomorrow.
Can`t rule out some pop up t-storms this afternoon but very poor
lapse rates between 850-500 mb will really limit our chances.
Scattered storms along the cold front to our north will start to
push south into our area after 10 pm tonight and will continue to
work south during the overnight likely becoming less widespread.
Soundings continue to show poor lapse rates overnight along with
low shear, this will keep the threat for strong storms low but
still can`t rule out heavy rain and isolated gusty winds.

The front will be working south through our area on Sunday. This
will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the
forecast. The best chances will be for areas south of I-40 and
east of I-65 during the afternoon. Lapse rates look slightly
better tomorrow compared to today but still don`t look great and
we do see some dry air above 500 mb but shear still remain lows.
Overall with this in mind the threat for strong storms is low but
some may produce gusty winds 40-60 mph along with heavy rain. The
thunderstorm threat is expected to diminish by 7 pm. Highs will be
a bit cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Cooler drier air will be working in behind the front on Monday and
that is going to bring great weather. We will see highs in the 80s
and dew points as low as the mid 50s! Unfortunately the cooler
more comfortable weather will not last as upper level ridging
builds over the region and we see highs push back into the 90s.
This will bring the return of hot weather lasting through the
week. By mid-week the high will be just to our east with a low to
the north over Canada, this is going to give us direct flow off
the Gulf and push our dew points into the mid to upper 70s. This
means heat index values above 100 including for the 4th of July
Holiday. Starting Tuesday night we will also see very warm
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s, this will bring little to
no relief to those without air conditioning. Forcing will be weak
during the week but with the high dew points popup afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will be possible each day staring Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected at airports this TAF period with low
probability of MVFR conditions due to TSRA at CSV/SRB this
afternoon. South winds this morning will veer to southwest and
increase to 5-10 knots during the day, before subsiding again
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  78  91  66 /  30  30  60  10
Clarksville    95  75  88  61 /  20  40  40   0
Crossville     87  70  87  59 /  50  30  80  20
Columbia       96  75  92  64 /  30  20  60  10
Cookeville     89  73  88  61 /  40  30  70  20
Jamestown      88  72  86  59 /  50  30  70  20
Lawrenceburg   94  74  91  64 /  30  20  60  20
Murfreesboro   95  75  93  64 /  30  20  60  10
Waverly        95  74  88  62 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Shamburger