366
FXUS64 KOHX 291041
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
541 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

This appears to be the warmest night of the year. At midnight it was
82F in the music city. Most other locations are near 80F as well.
Those dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s so a warm and humid
night for sure.

The current warmth will set the stage for heat advisory level
conditions by this afternoon. We will again see highs in the mid to
upper 90s. And with the humidity remaining in play we will see max
heat index values of 105F to 109F. Therefore the heat advisory will
continue for this afternoon and early evening.

Otherwise, for any precip chances, a weak mid level trough will be
oriented n-s across the mid state today. Some pva will provide lift
over our eastern areas. With c/c ratios sufficiently surpassed, we
will see some convection develop, mainly east of I-65 in the
afternoon. Convection chances will persist into the overnight as a
frontal boundary slides our way. With a marginal risk across our
north, there is the risk of some high winds with these storms in
advance of the boundary. Latest cams, not really showing too much.

On Sunday, the boundary will still be in close proximity to our
southern areas. Convection could fire again, mainly south, with a
few strong storms possible through early afternoon.

Drier and cooler air will follow the boundary, It will provide a
noticeable break from the heat but it will be brief. Nevertheless,
Monday still looks like the choice pick day of the forecast.

For those near term temps, hot and miserable today with near to
slightly above advisory conditions west of the Plat. Not as bad on
Sunday, then very nice on Monday with 80s for highs and lower
humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

In the extended forecast, looks like a warm front will work
northward early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a strong upper ridge will settle
in as well. This will equate to hot conditions with advisory level
heat once again coming into play.

As for convection chances, just enough in the way of southward ridge
suppression will occur so as to re-evoke a westerly flow. Convection
chances, though low, will return by mid to late week.

For the extended temps, very quick warmup from Monday`s short lived
heat reprieve. We are back in the 90s with HI values flirting with
advisory levels for much of the week.

For the tropics, the western Atlantic looks basically clean.
However, in the eastern Atlantic, tropical storm Beryl is now
ongoing and is about 1100 miles east of Barbados. It is expected to
stay well south and reach the Caribbean by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected at airports this TAF period with low
probability of MVFR conditions due to TSRA at CSV/SRB this
afternoon. South winds this morning will veer to southwest and
increase to 5-10 knots during the day, before subsiding again
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  78  92  66 /  20  30  70   0
Clarksville    95  75  88  62 /  10  40  50   0
Crossville     87  70  87  60 /  60  30  70  10
Columbia       96  75  93  64 /  20  20  70   0
Cookeville     89  73  88  62 /  40  30  80   0
Jamestown      88  72  86  60 /  50  30  80  10
Lawrenceburg   94  74  92  64 /  20  20  70   0
Murfreesboro   96  75  93  64 /  30  20  70   0
Waverly        95  75  88  63 /  10  30  50   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-
Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Shamburger