007
FXUS61 KOKX 120857
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
457 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds southward from Canadian Maritimes today
into tonight. On Sunday, the high shifts farther away with a
warm front slowly moving through the local area. An associated
cold front moves in Monday into Monday night. The front weakens
thereafter with weak high pressure returning for midweek before
low pressure approaches towards end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low level winds stay from east to southeast today, higher along the
coast and less inland. This will be occurring as high pressure
builds southwest from Nova Scotia. The setup here will allow for
relatively more low level convergence across the interior areas.

For today, starting out the day with low clouds, dry conditions and
perhaps some patches of fog, outside of NYC. HRRR has been more
aggressive with the formation of fog, but limited potential for the
fog and the scenario is more of low clouds as opposed to fog. Still
have some locations where higher relative humidity approaching 100
percent with patchy fog.

Otherwise, any morning fog and low clouds will soon burn off with
low level moisture mixing out as another seasonably warm day is
expected. Utilized the NBM along with the MAV MOS to give warmer
temperatures than including the MET MOS guidance. Warmest locations
are within northeast NJ and Lower Hudson Valley and thereby where
the most low level instability will be. CAMs are not depicting much
convection within the local region and seem to be much less than the
NBM POPs would suggest. Did manually lower from NBM POPs regarding
the convection. The interior locations is were the chances for
showers and thunderstorms are, highest between 2PM and 8PM EDT.
Coastal areas not expected to see showers or thunderstorms.

Max temperature forecast mainly within the 80s with relatively
cooler values along much of the immediate shoreline. Within the area
of Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, interior SW CT as well as NYC, highs
today are within the upper 80s. These same locations will see max
heat index values of several degrees higher than the actual
temperature. These max heat indices are in the lower 90s, below
heat advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight into Sunday, the flow regime across the area does not
change much at all. Still looking at overall east to southeast
winds. The pressure tendency does turn more negative Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.

For tonight, with the lack of upper level forcing, the decrease of
diurnal instability should allow for any convection to diminish in
coverage. Expecting mainly dry conditions tonight.

Minimum temperatures also from MAV and NBM, limited with their
downward potential due to anticipated increase in cloud coverage. In
addition, patches of fog could develop once again for parts of the
region outside of NYC.

Once again, expecting the clouds to decrease as the day progresses
Sunday with any residual patchy fog burning off in the morning.
Forecast has another chance for showers and thunderstorms, but this
time farther away from the coast and not starting until after 2PM.

Weather overall looks to become more unsettled thereafter going into
Sunday night and Monday. Forecast has a higher chance for showers
(becoming likely) on Monday and Monday night. Thunderstorm potential
limited to chance.

The increased probability of showers comes as a result of an overall
trend from ridging to more troughing aloft. Likewise, models
indicate the presence of more instability, a sign also of cooling
aloft to help generate that extra CAPE.

Airmass itself does not significantly change during the short
term but dewpoints trend a little higher Monday so more lower
90s for the max heat index forecast in the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
It will be unstable for much of the week with a hot airmass in
place. Despite a frontal boundary in the vicinity Tuesday, some
ridging ahead of the next system could limit convection into
Wednesday morning. The approach of an upper level trough could along
with the weak forcing from the frontal boundary could allow for some
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A cold front
approaching from the NW could help trigger more extensive coverage
Thu into the first half of next weekend.

Temps are expected to be above normal Tue-Fri, with highs in many
spots int the lower to middle 90s away from the coast. Thu is
modeled to be the hottest at this time with apparent temps around
100 for NE NJ and the interior.

The NBM was followed.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains in place through Saturday night.

MVFR to IFR conditions across the area. Metro terminals look to
remain MVFR through daybreak Saturday. Higher chances for IFR
will be fore eastern terminals such ask KISP and KGON.
Conditions improve back to VFR Saturday morning into the
afternoon. MVFR conditions return Saturday evening, with IFR
conditions Saturday night. PROB30 for shra/tsra at KSWF in the
afternoon.

Winds SE under 10kt, becoming light and variable for outlying areas
Saturday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to timing of lowering flight categories this
tonight. Chance that IFR does not occur at KTEB/KEWR/KLGA.
Timing for improving categories on Saturday could be 1-2 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR/IFR, improving to VFR Sunday afternoon.

Monday: MVFR or lower in the afternoon and early evening with
showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Showers or thunderstorm possible in
the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The absence of a steep pressure gradient will keep conditions on
all waters within the region below small craft advisory
criteria through Monday night.

With a weak pressure gradient, winds and waves are expected to
remain below SCA criteria from Tuesday through Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns tonight through Sunday. Possible minor
flooding on Monday and Monday night with more heavy rain
potential.

In the long term, localized hydrologic impacts are possible due to
tstms.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk is moderate through Sunday along Atlantic
facing ocean beaches with onshore flow near 10 kt and a 3-4 ft
swell from the southeast at a 7 to 8 sec Sat, and an added long
period onshore swell on Sun.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC/JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...