569
FXUS61 KOKX 301822
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
222 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north across the area tonight, followed by a
cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A cold front
approaches Thursday and moves through the area Thursday evening
followed by high pressure building into the area through the
weekend. Another frontal system may impact the area early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
We are still looking at the potential for some showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. CAMs continue to show
some development, mainly across the SW part of the CWA, right around
21z. Will continue to carry just some slight chance or chance POPs
to cover this, with the best chances across the southern portion of
NE NJ and Staten Island. Otherwise it should be a mainly dry
evening.

A frontal boundary then lifts north across the forecast area
tonight. The frontal boundary combined with an upper level shortwave
will result in additional showers and thunderstorms moving across
the area. Chances will increase between 03-06z with most of the
shower activity ending around 10-12z.

Precipitable water values increase to around 2.25 inches after
midnight, so any showers and stronger storms could put down a quick
inch plus of rain locally. Most of the precipitation should end
towards daybreak as the front lifts further north. Winds will
become more S/SW overnight. Lows tonight will be in the middle
and upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The warm front continues to push northward Tuesday morning, and
despite what could be a mostly cloudy start, it should be a dry
morning. I have lowered the NBM POPs for a period Tuesday morning.
It will also be rather muggy with dew points rising into the lower
70s.

By late morning and midday enough breaks of sun should take place to
get temperatures rather warm. Temperatures did come down a degree or
two from the previous forecast, so expect highs in the 80s for most
of the area, and a few 90s in the NYC/NE NJ urban corridor With dew
point readings mainly in the lower and middle 70s, heat indices
should get into the lower and middle 90s, with a few locations
reaching the upper 90s. No plans for any heat advisories at this
time.

A cold front off to the west approaches with showers and storms
likely developing along a pre-frontal trough and back to the west
along the cold front itself. CAMs showing some development possible
as early as 16-18z, then POPs should ramp up rather quickly around
or after 18z. Expect shower and thunderstorms then through the
remainder of the afternoon/evening. Storm Prediction Center still
has the the region in the marginal risk of severe weather, with a
slight chance extended into NJ and touching parts of NYC and the
Lower Hudson Valley. The main threat with any storms will be severe
wind gusts and heavy rain.

Showers and storms are likely through the first half of Tuesday
night with chances trailing off getting towards and after 06z. With
front appearing a bit slower now, shower chances carry into early
Wednesday morning for far eastern sections. A warm and muggy night
with minimum temperatures in the upper 60s well northwest, to mostly
lower 70s closer to the coast.

Drier weather returns for Wednesday, as the front pushes through the
area and slides offshore. With the front still nearby, expect clouds
at least through the morning before clearing later in day. It does
remain humid, but not as bad as Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be
in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level trough swings into the Northeast US from the Great
Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Energy in the flow that moves
within the trough will push a surface low north of the area. The
associated cold front moves through Thursday afternoon and evening
bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms, particularly
for the northern and western portions of the area.

The trough lingers overhead for Friday with a surface high pressure
building into the area from the west through the weekend. The
overhead trough on Friday will result in temperatures slightly
cooler than Thursday, but generally around average for this time of
year. Highs on Friday will be in the low to middle 80s for much of
the area under generally clear skies.

Surface high pressure continues to build into the area accompanied
by a building upper level ridge. This will continue to allow for
generally clear to partly cloudy skies and warming temperatures
through the weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the middle 80s for
much of the area. Temperatures warm into the upper 80s and low 90s
for Sunday and Monday. Given the ample surface heating and potential
development of instability into the afternoon Sunday and Monday, pop-
up showers and storms may develop for inland areas to the north and
west. Another frontal system may approach the area from the
northwest late Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A stationary front to the south will lift north as a warm front
tonight. A cold front will then approach Tuesday afternoon.

VFR with SE-S flow mostly less than 10 kt except at KJFK where
winds should be slightly higher after 20Z. ENE sound breeze at
KLGA about to shift SE-S as well and should do so shortly after
18Z. An isolated tstm still possible near KEWR late today but
should not impact the other NYC metro terminals.

For tonight, S winds diminish to less than 10 kt throughout. VFR
cond to start, then LIFR cigs should move in at KISP/KGON this
evening and KBDR after midnight, and may also impact KJFK this
evening. Meanwhile showers/tstms likely to move across from the
west overnight, mainly 04Z-08Z from the NYC metros north/west,
and an hour or two later at the Long Island and CT terminals.
Mainly MVFR cond expected at most terminals with this activity
(and improvement from LIFR to IFR out east), but can`t rule out
brief IFR vsby with any heavier showers/tstms. Some patchy fog
with MVFR vsby also possible late after this activity passes.

Flight cat improves to VFR throughout by 13Z-14Z, with SW flow
around 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

* Any isolated showers/tstms near KEWR from about 21Z-01Z
  unlikely to affect the other metro terminals.

* LIFR cigs may be possible at KJFK or nearby over the water from
  about 01Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night: Showers/tstms likely
into the evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Stronger storms
could produce strong winds and brief IFR vsby. MVFR cigs likely
at KISP/KGON through the night.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Chance of afternoon showers/tstms mainly at
KSWF/KHPN with MVFR or lower cond possible, otherwise VFR.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions remain below SCA levels through tonight. As a cold front
approaches Tuesday a southerly flow increases and ocean seas will
build mostly to 4-6 ft and gusts to around 25 kt resulting in small
craft conditions on the ocean. For the non-ocean waters, expect
mainly sub advisory conditions. Some of eastern non- ocean waters
may see marginal small craft gusts and may eventually need
advisories for Tuesday afternoon and evening. By later Wednesday
morning in the wake of the cold front sub advisory conditions should
return on the ocean with a W-SW wind and ocean seas mainly around 4
ft.

Generally tranquil conditions Wednesday night through Saturday will
result in sub-SCA on all waters.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Except for SE CT and eastern Long Island, there is a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall on Tuesday. With high PW in place
instantaneous rain rates are likely to be high, leading to a
localized risk of flash flooding with any stronger
thunderstorms, confined mostly to urban and poor drainage
locations.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk of rip current development across the ocean
beaches today. There is a high risk of rip currents on Tuesday,
especially in the afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...